澳大利亚消费者价格指数预计将在澳大利亚储备银行利率决定之前小幅上涨。澳大利亚消费者价格指数预计将在澳大利亚储备银行利率决定之前小幅上涨

Australia CPI expected to edge higher ahead of RBA rate decision.Australia CPI expected to edge higher ahead of RBA rate decision

澳元/日元价格预测：100.00附近出现关键上行障碍。澳元/日元价格预测：100.00附近出现关键上行障碍

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Crucial upside barrier emerges near 100.00.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Crucial upside barrier emerges near 100.00

澳大利亚10年期债券收益率升至4.18%左右，接近近两周来的最高水平，这得益于对澳大利亚储备银行近期即将降息的疑虑加剧。州长米歇尔·布洛克淡化了最近失业率的上升，并强调了委员会的谨慎态度，指出澳大利亚的劳动力市场仍然紧张，通货膨胀持续存在，这表明在今年早些时候三次降息后，进一步放宽货币政策的门槛更高。市场现在认为，在澳大利亚储备银行11月4日的会议上，3.6%的现金利率下调25个基点的可能性约为40%，低于周一早些时候的60%，而预计到2月仍将全面降息。投资者现在正关注9月份的CPI报告和本周晚些时候即将公布的第三季度通胀数据，以了解货币政策的更多线索。8月份的数据显示，通胀率为2024年7月以来的最高水平。

Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose to around 4.18%, near its highest level in almost two weeks, supported by rising doubts over an imminent near-term RBA rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock downplayed the recent rise in unemployment and stressed the board’s cautious approach, noting that Australia’s labor market remains tight and inflation persistent, suggesting a higher threshold for further monetary easing after three rate cuts earlier this year. Markets now assign roughly a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut to the 3.6% cash rate at the RBA’s November 4 meeting, down from 60% earlier Monday, while a full rate reduction is still expected by February. Investors are now focusing on September’s CPI report and the upcoming Q3 inflation data later this week for additional clues into monetary policy, following August’s reading, which showed the highest inflation since July 2024.

澳元周二升至0.656美元左右，达到近三周来的最高水平，因美元走软提供支撑。周三美联储会议前，美元走弱，市场预计将降息25个基点，而对美中潜在贸易协议的乐观情绪也打压了避险需求。在澳大利亚，人们的注意力现在转向周三发布的第三季度通胀数据和9月份的月度CPI报告，这可能会进一步了解利率的走势。市场对降息的预期大幅下降，目前只考虑了15%的可能性，相较于60%大幅下降。此前，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克重申，尽管失业率上升幅度超过了澳大利亚储备银行的预期，但劳动力市场仍然“有点紧张”。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.656 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as a softer US dollar provided support. The greenback weakened ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with markets pricing in a 25 bps rate cut, while optimism over a potential US-China trade deal also weighed on safe-haven demand. In Australia, attention now turns to Wednesday’s release of Q3 inflation data and the September monthly CPI report, which could offer further insight into the trajectory of interest rates. Market expectations for a rate cut have dropped sharply, with only a 15% probability currently priced in, down significantly from 60% after RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the labor market remains “a little tight,” despite unemployment rising more than the RBA had projected.