澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率保持在4.48%左右，投资者在下周澳大利亚储备银行货币政策会议之前等待年度预算公布。预算可能会揭示支出、借贷和财政政策的关键细节，这可能会影响利率预期。与此同时，强劲的经济数据加强了澳大利亚储备银行采取限制性货币立场的理由，这与助理州长莎拉·亨特的鹰派信号相一致，她强调对进一步降息持谨慎态度，并需要监测美国政策对澳大利亚通胀的影响。掉期交易表明，在2月份四年来首次降息后，澳大利亚储备银行可能会在4月份保持利率不变，5月份降息的可能性为68%。市场预计，到年底，利率将从4.1%降至3.4%，这意味着降息不到三次。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held around 4.48% as investors awaited the annual budget release ahead of the RBA’s monetary policy meeting next week. The budget may reveal key details on spending, borrowing, and fiscal policy, which might influence interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, strong economic data has reinforced the case for a restrictive monetary stance from the RBA, aligning with hawkish signals from Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who emphasized caution on further rate cuts and the need to monitor US policy for its impact on Australian inflation. Swaps suggest the RBA will likely hold rates in April after February’s first cut in four years, with a 68% chance of a cut in May. Markets expect rates to fall to 3.4% by year-end from 4.1%, implying fewer than three cuts.