欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续出现波动。周二早盘，美元回吐了周一的部分涨幅，表明在过去几个月美元大幅上涨后，我们实际上仍在盘整。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to See Choppiness.The USD gave back some of Monday's gains early Tuesday to show that we are in fact still consolidating after a massive run higher in the greenback over the last few months.

中国取消对澳大利亚肉类出口商的最终贸易限制。中国已正式解除对澳大利亚另外两家肉类加工厂的禁令，这意味着它现在已经取消了对2020年至2022年期间禁止的所有10家澳大利亚屠宰场的所有限制。在某种情况下，贸易限制是在两国之间的影响下实施的。

China lifts final trade restrictions on Australia meat exporters.China has officially lifted its ban on two more of Australia's meat processing facilities, meaning it has now removed all restrictions on all 10 Australian abattoirs that it has banned between 2020 and 2022. For some context, the trade restrictions went into place amid the fallout between the two countries during the time.

周二，澳元跌至0.647美元以下，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为由于美国关税风险和中国持续的经济不确定性，人民币面临压力。鉴于中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，澳元通常被视为人民币的流动性代表。在国内，数据显示，在截至9月的三个月里，由于出口疲软，澳大利亚连续第六个季度出现经常账户赤字。在货币政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克上周重申，澳大利亚的核心通胀率仍然“过高”，短期内无法考虑降息。她强调，在通胀前景更有信心之前，政策将保持限制性，并指出在价格可持续地恢复到澳大利亚储备银行的目标之前，需要取得进一步进展。

The Australian dollar fell below $0.647 on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as the yuan came under pressure due to US tariff risks and ongoing economic uncertainties in China. The Aussie is often seen as a liquid proxy for the yuan, given China's role as Australia's largest trading partner. Domestically, data revealed that Australia posted its sixth consecutive quarter of a current account deficit for the three months ending in September, driven by weak exports. On the monetary policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reiterated last week that Australia's core inflation remains "too high" to consider interest rate cuts in the near term. She emphasized that policy would remain restrictive until there is greater confidence in the inflation outlook, noting that further progress is needed before prices sustainably return to the RBA’s target.

2024年第三季度，澳大利亚的经常账户赤字从第二季度向上修正的164亿澳元缺口降至141亿澳元，低于市场预期的100亿澳元缺口，表明连续第六个季度出现赤字。商品和服务盈余从第二季度的65亿澳元降至33亿澳元，为2018年第二季度以来的最低水平，主要原因是全球需求仍然疲软，铁矿石和煤炭价格持续下跌，导致出口价格下跌。与此同时，由于澳大利亚公司向海外投资者支付的股息下降，净初级收入缺口从之前的228亿澳元缩小至173亿澳元，为2021年第三季度以来的最小水平。此外，净二级收入赤字从第二季度的4700万澳元扩大到8100万澳元。

Australia's current account deficit decreased to AUD 14.1 billion in Q3 2024 from an upwardly revised AUD 16.4 billion shortfall in Q2, missing market expectations of an AUD 10.0 billion gap and indicating the sixth consecutive quarter of deficit. The surplus of goods and services shrank to AUD 3.3 billion, the smallest since Q2 2018, from AUD 6.5 billion in Q2, largely attributed to falling export prices amid persistently lower iron ore and coal prices, as global demand remained weak. Meanwhile, the shortfall of net primary income narrowed to AUD 17.3 billion from the prior gap of AUD 22.8 billion, pointing to the smallest since Q3 2021, due to a drop in dividends paid by Australian firms to overseas investors. In addition, the net secondary income deficit widened to AUD 81 million from AUD 47 million in Q2.