澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.35%左右，因为新的劳动力市场数据加强了下个月降息的理由。澳大利亚6月份失业率升至4.3%，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，超过了4.1%不变的预测。此外，就业人数增加了2000人，远低于前一个月修正后下降1100人后增加20000人的预期。数据显示，劳动力市场明显有弹性，这是疲软的第一个明显迹象，促使交易员对8月份的降息进行全面定价。市场也预计随后将再次降息，三分之一的几率甚至更高。今天的报告对澳大利亚储备银行至关重要，因为劳动力市场的强劲以及对其可能重新引发通货膨胀的担忧一直是其谨慎放松政策的关键原因。定于7月底发布的第二季度CPI报告现在被视为可能影响澳大利亚储备银行政策前景的下一个主要指标。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to around 4.35% as fresh labor market data strengthened the case for a rate cut next month. Australia’s jobless rate rose to 4.3% in June, the highest since November 2021 and exceeding forecasts for an unchanged 4.1%. In addition, employment increased by 2,000, well below expectations of a 20,000 gain, following a revised 1,100 fall in the prior month. The data showed the first clear sign of weakness in what has been a notably resilient labor market, prompting traders to fully price in a rate cut in August. Markets are also anticipating another cut to follow, with better-than-even odds of a third. Today’s report is crucial for the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the strength of the labor market—and concerns it could reignite inflation—has been a key reason for its cautious approach to policy easing. The second-quarter CPI report, due at the end of July, is now seen as the next major indicator that could shape the RBA’s policy outlook.

ForexLive亚太外汇新闻总结：日元非常疲软，AUd因就业报告不佳而下滑。“对于更容易受到更高关税影响的商品，今年迄今为止的价格涨幅远高于根据过去趋势所预期的涨幅。”

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen very weak, AUd slides on poor jobs report.“For items more exposed to higher tariffs, price increases so far this year have been well above what one would expect based on past trends.”

澳大利亚失业率飙升至4.3%，全职工作岗位减少。澳大利亚6月份的就业报告远低于预期，就业人数只增加了2000人，全职和兼职工作之间的差距很大。全职就业人数下降了38.2万人，而兼职职位增加了40.2万人。

Aussie unemployment rate surges to 4.3% as full-time jobs slide.Australia's June jobs report came in well short of expectations, with only a 2k increase in employment and a sharp divergence between full-time and part-time work. Full-time employment plunged by -38.2k while part-time roles rose 40.2k.

澳大利亚消费者通胀预期从6月份的两年峰值5.0%降至2025年7月的4.7%，这表明在劳动力市场持续强劲的情况下，通胀风险前景更加平衡。不过，目前尚不清楚这种转变是否预示着一种持久的趋势。2025年第一季度，年通货膨胀率稳定在2.4%，为四年来的最低水平，连续第三个季度保持不变。与此同时，澳大利亚储备银行首选的核心指标——削减后的平均CPI为2.9%，为2021年底以来的最低水平，但仍高于澳大利亚储备银行2%至3%的中点目标。5月份，月度CPI同比上涨2.1%，为2024年10月以来的最低涨幅。澳大利亚储备银行表示，在决定通胀是否稳步回归2.5%的目标之前，将等待更多数据。

Consumer inflation expectations in Australia eased to 4.7% in July 2025 from June’s two-year peak of 5.0%, suggesting a more balanced outlook for inflation risks amid continued labor market strength. Still, it's unclear whether this shift signals a lasting trend. In Q1 2025, annual inflation held steady at 2.4%—a four-year low—unchanged for the third consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred core measure, stood at 2.9%, the lowest since late 2021 but still above the RBA’s 2–3% midpoint target. In May, monthly CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year, the softest pace since October 2024. The RBA has signaled it will wait for more data before deciding whether inflation is firmly on track to sustainably return to its 2.5% target.