随着投资者消化澳大利亚储备银行最新会议纪要,澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.29%左右,接近两周低点。7月份的会议纪要显示,董事会同意随着时间的推移进一步降息是合适的,但强调了时间和规模的重要性。大多数成员倾向于等待通胀放缓的确认,并指出在四次会议上三次降息与谨慎和渐进的做法不一致。尽管如此,市场目前预计8月份会议降息的可能性为91%,期货市场预测利率将在明年初触底至3.1%左右。这一转变是在就业报告弱于预期之后发生的,该报告预示着之前有弹性的劳动力市场可能出现裂缝。投资者现在期待着澳大利亚央行行长米歇尔·布洛克的演讲,以深入了解澳大利亚储备银行的政策路径,以及本周晚些时候公布的PMI数据,以进一步了解经济势头。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.29%, approaching a two-week low, as investors digested the latest RBA meeting minutes. The July meeting minutes showed the board agreed further rate cuts would be appropriate over time but stressed the importance of timing and scale. Most members preferred to wait for confirmation that inflation is slowing, noting that cutting rates three times in four meetings would not align with a cautious and gradual approach. Still, markets are now pricing in a 91% chance of a rate cut at the August meeting, with futures pointing to rates bottoming around 3.1% by early next year. The shift follows a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which signaled potential cracks in the previously resilient labor market. Investors now look ahead to a speech by Governor Michele Bullock for more insights into the RBA’s policy path, along with flash PMI readings later this week for further signals on economic momentum.