欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续下跌。周二，美元继续下跌，因为人们再次回到“美元将归零”的情景。话虽如此，势头与其他方面有关，但延期有点危险。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Slide.The US dollar continues to slide on Tuesday, as the narrative is going back to the “US dollar is going to zero” scenario again. That being said, the momentum is with others, but the extension is getting a little dangerous.

澳大利亚储备银行的商品价格指数在2025年6月同比下降8.7%，较前一个月向上修正的9.4%有所缓解。这标志着大宗商品价格连续第28个月下跌，也是自3月以来的最低跌幅，主要是由于铁矿石和焦煤价格下跌。以澳元计算，该指数6月份下跌3.5%，较上月2.9%的跌幅有所加深。6月份，大宗商品价格环比下跌0.8%，扭转了上月0.4%的涨幅。虽然农村和贱金属有所增加，但非农村分项指数有所下降。

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices fell by 8.7% year-on-year in June 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 9.4% decline in the previous month. This marked the 28th consecutive month of falling commodity prices and the softest drop since March, primarily driven by lower iron ore and coking coal prices. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 3.5% in June, deepening from a 2.9% fall in the prior month. On a monthly basis, commodity prices declined by 0.8% in June, reversing a 0.4% rise in the preceding month. While increases were recorded in rural and base metals, the non-rural sub-index declined.

澳元在上一交易日触及七个月高点后，周二跌至0.656美元左右，因为对澳大利亚储备银行2025年7月会议降息的预期越来越高，给澳元带来了压力。市场现在认为，即使周三的零售销售数据超出预期，央行将现金利率下调25个基点至3.60%的可能性为95%。消费者支出持续表现不佳，一直低于澳大利亚储备银行的预测，这进一步支持了货币宽松政策。因此，市场越来越多地预测下半年将进一步降息，到年底，现金利率可能降至3.10%，甚至可能低至2.85%，这一水平被广泛认为具有刺激性。在经济方面，6月份制造业采购经理人指数降至四个月低点，反映出出口需求疲软和供应链持续中断导致生产和新订单疲软。

The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.656 on Tuesday, after touching over seven-month highs in the previous session, as mounting expectations of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia's July 2025 meeting weighed on the currency. Markets are now pricing in a 95% probability that the central bank will lower the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.60%, even if Wednesday’s retail sales data exceed expectations. Further bolstering the case for monetary easing is the continued underperformance in consumer spending, which has consistently fallen short of the RBA’s projections. As a result, markets are increasingly forecasting additional rate cuts in the second half of the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.10% by year-end—and possibly as low as 2.85%, a level widely viewed as stimulative. On the economic front, the manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low in June, reflecting weakening production and new orders amid subdued export demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.13%左右，接近两个多月来的最低水平，因为新的疲软经济数据增加了对近期降息的预期。标普全球数据显示，6月份制造业增长放缓至2月份以来的最低水平，由于客户库存充足和市场状况疲软，新订单五个月来首次下降。这进一步巩固了对7月降息的押注，此前5月通胀大幅放缓，使其接近储备银行2-3%目标区间的下限。掉期交易表明，澳大利亚储备银行在5月份采取行动后，再次下调目前3.85%现金利率的可能性为92%。市场已经预计，到明年初，将总共放宽95个基点，大约四次降息。投资者现在正在等待5月份的零售销售和贸易数据，以进一步了解澳大利亚的增长前景和政策路径。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.13%, approaching its lowest level in over two months, as fresh soft economic data added to expectations for near-term rate cuts. S&P Global data showed that manufacturing sector growth in June slowed to its weakest pace since February, as new orders fell for the first time in five months due to adequate client inventories and weaker market conditions. This further cemented bets on a July rate cut, following a sharp moderation in May inflation that brought it near the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range. Swaps indicate a 92% chance that the RBA will deliver another cut to the current 3.85% cash rate, after its move in May. Markets have priced in a total of 95 basis points of easing — roughly four rate cuts — by early next year. Investors now await May retail sales and trade data for further clues on Australia’s growth outlook and policy path.