欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——联邦公开市场委员会前美元涨跌互现。美元在一些市场上涨，但兑日元汇率继续出现问题。目前，市场只是在等待联邦公开市场委员会的利率声明和新闻发布会。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed Ahead of FOMC.The US dollar has gained in a few markets but has continued to see trouble against the Japanese yen. At this point, the market is simply waiting for the FOMC interest rate statement and press conference.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三下跌0.7%，收于8819点，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，受银行和矿商拖累，因为市场在就业数据可能指导澳大利亚储备银行的政策前景之前变得谨慎。乐观的国内数据，包括近两年来最快的经济增长，使市场认为澳大利亚储备银行本月降息的可能性仅为20%。现在的焦点转移到周四的就业报告上，最近强劲的数据使9月份的裁员机会保持在较低水平，11月份的裁员人数减少了70%。在全球范围内，投资者等待美联储当天晚些时候的政策决定，其中25个基点的降息（2025年的第一次）已完全消化，而注意力则集中在进一步宽松的信号的更新点图上。回到悉尼，利率敏感型金融股下跌0.7%，行业巨头澳大利亚国民银行（-1.1%）和西太平洋银行（0.7%）领跌。由于大宗商品价格疲软，权重矿商也下跌了近1%，必和必拓在宣布计划暂停运营并在昆士兰州一家炼焦煤矿裁员750人后下跌了1.1%。

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.7% to finish at 8,819 on Wednesday, reversing the prior session's gains, dragged by banks and miners, as markets turned cautious ahead of jobs data that could guide the RBA’s policy outlook. Upbeat domestic data, including the fastest economic growth in nearly two years, has markets pricing just 20% odds of an RBA cut this month. Focus now shifts to Thursday’s jobs report, with strong recent data keeping September cut chances low and November easing bets at 70%. Globally, investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day, with a 25bps cut—the first of 2025—fully priced in, while attention centers on the updated dot plot for signals on further easing. Back in Sydney, rate-sensitive financials declined 0.7%, led by sector majors NAB (-1.1%) and Westpac (0.7%). Heavyweight miners also slipped nearly 1% on weaker commodity prices, with BHP down 1.1% after announcing plans to suspend operations and cut 750 jobs at a Queensland coking coal mine.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率微升至4.22%，投资者等待周四公布的关键本地就业数据，这些数据可能会影响储备银行的利率前景。市场目前认为，在本月的澳大利亚储备银行会议上降息的可能性只有20%，而在一系列可靠的国内数据之后，对11月加息的预期（几周前几乎可以肯定）已降至70%左右。与此同时，助理行长Sarah Hunter周二表示，澳大利亚储备银行“非常接近”将通胀率恢复到其2-3%目标的中点，并补充说，央行正在密切关注消费需求的潜在强度，因为它试图使经济尽可能接近充分就业。在全球方面，人们的注意力转向了美联储在当天晚些时候政策会议结束时的政策决定，人们普遍预计美联储将降息25个基点。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield inched up to 4.22%, as investors awaited key local jobs data due on Thursday that could shape the Reserve Bank’s interest rate outlook. Markets currently assign only a 20% chance of a rate cut at the RBA’s meeting this month, while expectations for a November move—which was almost certain just weeks ago—have been pared back to around 70%, following a run of solid domestic data. Meanwhile, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Tuesday the RBA is “pretty close” to bringing inflation back to the midpoint of its 2-3% target, adding that the central bank is closely watching the underlying strength of consumer demand as it seeks to keep the economy near to full employment as possible. On the global front, attention turns to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision at the end of its policy meeting later in the day, where it is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps.

澳大利亚领先指数跌破趋势，但澳大利亚储备银行将等到11月再次降息。澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数增长率在8月份跌至负值，从0.11%降至-0.16%。这是自2024年9月以来的首次低于趋势的读数，与2月份0.86%的峰值相比大幅放缓。

Australia leading index turns below trend, but RBA to wait until November to cut again.Australia's Westpac Leading Index growth rate slipped into negative territory in August, falling from 0.11% to -0.16%. It marks the first below-trend reading since September 2024 and a sharp moderation from February's peak of 0.86%.