澳大利亚领先指数跌破趋势，但澳大利亚储备银行将等到11月再次降息。澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数增长率在8月份跌至负值，从0.11%降至-0.16%。这是自2024年9月以来的首次低于趋势的读数，与2月份0.86%的峰值相比大幅放缓。

Australia leading index turns below trend, but RBA to wait until November to cut again.Australia's Westpac Leading Index growth rate slipped into negative territory in August, falling from 0.11% to -0.16%. It marks the first below-trend reading since September 2024 and a sharp moderation from February's peak of 0.86%.

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The Australian Dollar edged lower to around $0.668 on Wednesday, but traded near its highest level since early November last year, as markets monitored the highly anticipated US Fed’s key policy decision. The US dollar continued to struggle as markets fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. However, the bigger focus will be the Fed’s updated dot plot, which could signal how many more cuts may follow amid weak jobs data, sticky inflation, and political pressure. At home, investors await Thursday’s jobs report, expected to show 20K–25K new positions with unemployment steady at 4.2%, a key input for the RBA’s policy path. Markets now assign minimal odds to a September cut, with November easing bets trimmed to 70% on the back of solid recent data. On the geopolitical front, the US and China, Australia's top trading partners, reached a deal to place TikTok under US ownership, with final approval expected in a Friday call between Presidents Trump and Xi.

西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所澳大利亚领先经济指数在7月份上涨0.1%后，于2025年8月环比下跌0.1%。六个月的年化增长率也从0.1%降至0.16%，这是自2024年底以来的首次低于趋势的读数，表明今年早些时候出现的高于趋势的势头明显减弱。这一模式表明，在第二季度表现强劲后，增长再次放缓。西太平洋银行预测，2025年国内生产总值将增长1.9%，高于2024年的1.3%，但仍略低于趋势，然后在2026年恢复趋势。由于通胀和消费者需求证明比预期更为强劲，澳大利亚储备银行将在9月份的会议上将现金利率保持在3.6%。然而，经济增长放缓的证据应该为11月降息25个基点提供空间，随后在2026年再降息两次。

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia slipped 0.1% month-over-month in August 2025, after a 0.1% rise in July. The six-month annualized growth rate also fell to 0.16% from 0.1%, its first below-trend reading since late 2024, signaling a clear softening from the above-trend momentum seen earlier this year. The pattern points to growth easing again after a firm Q2. Westpac forecasts GDP to expand 1.9% in 2025, up from 1.3% in 2024 but still slightly below trend, before returning to trend in 2026. With inflation and consumer demand proving firmer than expected, the RBA is set to keep the cash rate at 3.6% in its September meeting. However, evidence of slowing growth should allow room for a 25bps cut in November, followed by two more cuts in 2026.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三下跌0.4%，至8840点左右，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，银行和矿商领跌，与华尔街一致，华尔街在美联储政策决定之前失去了动力。美联储将于本周公布其2025年的首次降息，市场完全预计将降息25个基点。然而，更大的焦点将是更新的点图，这可能表明接下来可能会有多少削减。在国内，投资者在周四的就业数据公布之前保持谨慎，该数据被视为澳大利亚储备银行政策路径的关键。市场现在认为9月降息的可能性很小，由于最近的数据保持稳定，11月的宽松押注被削减至70%。在企业新闻方面，矿业巨头必和必拓股价下跌0.6%，此前该公司宣布计划暂停运营，并在昆士兰州一家炼焦煤矿裁员750人，理由是价格低廉和州特许权使用费高昂，而Fortescue和力拓分别下跌1%和0.4%。在金融类股中，行业巨头NAB（-0.9%）和西太平洋银行（-0.6%）领跌。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4% to around 8,840 on Wednesday, reversing the prior session's gains, as banks and miners led declines in line with Wall Street, which lost momentum ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its first rate cut of 2025 this week, with markets fully pricing in a quarter-point move. However, the bigger focus will be the updated dot plot, which could signal how many more cuts may follow. Domestically, investors stayed cautious ahead of Thursday’s jobs data, seen as key to the RBA’s policy path. Markets now assign minimal odds to a September cut, with November easing bets trimmed to 70% as recent data remain solid. In corporate news, mining giant BHP slipped 0.6% after announcing plans to suspend operations and cut 750 jobs at a Queensland coking coal mine, citing low prices and high state royalties, while Fortescue and Rio Tinto fell 1% and 0.4%, respectively. Among financials, sector majors NAB (-0.9%) and Westpac (-0.6%) led losses.