周五,澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅上涨至4.53%,投资者等待澳大利亚储备银行下周的政策决定。尽管投资者仍然相信央行将把官方现金利率下调25个基点,但在乐观的就业报告发布后,他们已将今年降息总额的预期从几周前的100多个基点下调至75个基点。最近的数据显示,澳大利亚4月份就业人数飙升,而失业率保持稳定,突显了劳动力市场的弹性。这一转变也反映了美中贸易紧张局势的缓和,这降低了全球经济衰退的可能性,并减少了国内采取激进货币宽松政策的必要性。与此同时,在美国,本周经济数据的下行意外增强了人们对美联储今年进一步降息的预期。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose slightly to 4.53% on Friday as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision next week. While investors remain confident that the central bank will cut its official cash rate by 25bps, they have scaled back their expectations for the total rate cuts this year to 75bps, down from over 100bps a few weeks ago, following an upbeat jobs report. Recent data showed Australian employment soared in April while the jobless rate held steady, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The shift also reflects the easing of US-China trade tensions, which has lowered the chances of a global recession and reduced the need for aggressive monetary easing at home. Meanwhile, in the US, downside surprises on economic data this week reinforced expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.