欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续波动。美元在周四凌晨有点挣扎，但此时此刻，该货币严重缺乏动力。最终，在这种情况下，由于夏季的原因，我们也可能会看到一些疲软。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Wobble.The US dollar is fighting a bit in the early hours of Thursday, but at this point in time, there is a serious lack of momentum for the currency. Ultimately, this is a situation where we are possibility seeing a bit of sluggishness due to the summer as well.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数下跌0.3%，收于8709点，结束了连续两个交易日的涨势，因为麦格理的下跌超过了生物技术巨头CSL的涨幅。金融股下跌0.3%，占该指数3%的麦格理在第一季度利润疲软后下跌5.1%，为三个月来最差。首席财务官的辞职、对高管薪酬的担忧以及分析师指出，由于依赖资产销售和大宗商品敞口，收益的可见性降低，加剧了这一下降。此外，黄金股下跌1.9%，为7月16日以来的最大跌幅，因全球贸易协议报告后金价继续下跌。据报道，美国和欧盟即将就大多数进口商品达成15%的关税协议，以防止更广泛的贸易战，此前美国和日本最近达成了一项缓解全球紧张局势的协议。与此同时，医疗保健类股上涨1%，创下五个月新高，CSL（1.5%）在防御性轮换中领涨。在第四季度铁矿石出货量创纪录后，权重矿商Fortescue也飙升4.3%，达到2月份以来的最高水平。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3% to finish at 8,709 on Thursday, halting its two-session winning streak, as a drop in Macquarie outweighed gains in biotech giant CSL. Financials fell 0.3% as Macquarie, which makes up 3% of the index, slid 5.1%, its worst in three months, after a weaker Q1 profit. The decline was compounded by the CFO’s resignation, concerns over executive pay, and analysts noting reduced earnings visibility due to reliance on asset sales and commodity exposure. Additionally, gold stocks dropped 1.9%, their steepest since July 16, as bullion extended losses after reports of global trade deals. The US and EU are reportedly nearing a 15% tariff deal on most imports to prevent a wider trade war, following a recent US–Japan agreement that eased global tensions. Meanwhile, healthcare stocks rose 1% to a five-month high, led by CSL (1.5%) amid a defensive rotation. Heavyweight miner Fortescue also surged 4.3% to its highest since February, after a record Q4 iron ore shipments.

澳大利亚储备银行的布洛克表示通胀放缓，坚持渐进宽松的倾向。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克在一次演讲中对通胀前景表示谨慎，他警告称，第二季度削减后的平均通胀率下降“可能不如我们预测的那么多”。尽管整体CPI预计将跌至2-3%目标区间的下半部分，但布洛克强调，临时生活成本救济正在发挥作用，潜在压力可能会更加持久。

RBA's Bullock flags slower disinflation, sticks with gradual easing bias.RBA Governor Michele Bullock signaled in a speech caution over the inflation outlook, warning that the fall in trimmed mean inflation in Q2 “may not be quite as much as we forecast”. While headline CPI is expected to dip into the lower half of the 2–3% target range, Bullock stressed that temporary cost-of-living relief is playing a role, and underlying pressures may prove more persistent.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率攀升至4.36%，贸易谈判的进展提振了风险偏好。有报道称，欧盟和美国即将达成一项贸易协议，对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，这与本周早些时候与日本达成的类似协议相呼应。强劲的国内经济数据也提振了市场情绪。7月份，澳大利亚的商业活动飙升至三年多来的最高水平，这得益于服务业16个月来最快的增长和制造业产出的回升。与此同时，澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock周四表示，央行政策委员会认为适当的降息方式是“有节制和渐进的”，并指出劳动力需求仍然强劲，而核心通胀正在逐步缓解。尽管如此，市场预计在8月份的澳大利亚储备银行下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性接近100%，预计到年底利率将触底至3.10%。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 4.36%, as progress in trade negotiations boosted risk appetite. Reports suggested that the EU and the US are nearing a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports—mirroring a similar deal reached with Japan earlier this week. Market sentiment was also buoyed by strong domestic economic data. Business activity in Australia surged to its highest level in over three years in July, driven by the fastest growth in the services sector in 16 months and a pickup in manufacturing output. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the central bank’s policy board views a “measured and gradual” approach to rate cuts as appropriate, noting that labor demand remains strong while core inflation is gradually easing. Still, markets are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25bps cut at the RBA’s next meeting in August, with rates expected to bottom out at 3.10% by year-end.