周四，澳元升值至0.650美元以上，连续第三个交易日延续涨势，这得益于澳大利亚储备银行再次降息的谨慎押注。市场定价现在意味着，在2025年剩下的时间里，只有大约34个基点的额外宽松政策，在7月通胀比预期更热之后，9月加息的可能性降至约25%。分析师预计，一旦第三季度通胀数据公布，印度储备银行将等到11月恢复宽松周期。澳元也受到美元走软的支撑，在纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示美联储将在9月降息后，交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注。唐纳德·特朗普总统还试图通过寻求罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，转而支持一位更温和的候选人，来扩大他对央行的影响力。当地数据显示，6月季度商业投资有所增加，数据中心和物流表现强劲，这为乐观基调增添了色彩。

The Australian dollar appreciated to above $0.650 on Thursday, extending its rally for the third consecutive session, supported by tempered bets of another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market pricing now implies only around 34 bps of additional easing for the rest of 2025, with the odds of a September move slipping to about 25%, after July inflation came in hotter than expected. Analysts expect the RBI to wait until November, once Q3 inflation is available, before resuming its easing cycle. The Aussie also drew support from a softer US dollar, as traders ramped up bets on a September Fed rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams signaled the option was on the table. President Donald Trump also bid to expand his sway over the central bank by seeking to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook in favor of a more dovish nominee. Adding to the upbeat tone, local data showed business investment ticked higher in the June quarter, with strength in data centres and logistics.