澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅下跌至4.25%左右,低于预期的GDP数据加强了澳大利亚储备银行进一步放松货币政策的理由。澳大利亚经济在第一季度增长了1.3%,与上一季度持平,但低于预期的1.5%的增长率。疲软的增长归因于公共支出下降以及消费需求和出口减弱。自2月以来,澳大利亚储备银行已经两次降息,将现金利率降至3.85%。5月政策会议纪要还显示,在美国关税带来的经济风险加剧的情况下,政策制定者甚至考虑了更大幅度的50个基点的降息。市场目前预计,央行在7月份的下次会议上将现金利率再下调25个基点至3.60%的可能性为80%。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged lower to around 4.25% as weaker-than-expected GDP data reinforced the case for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Australian economy expanded by 1.3% in the first quarter, the same pace as in the previous quarter but lower than the expected 1.5% growth. The soft growth was attributed to declining public spending and weakened consumer demand and exports. Since February, the RBA has already delivered two rate cuts, bringing the cash rate down to 3.85%. Minutes from the May policy meeting also revealed that policymakers even considered a larger 50bps cut, amid heightened economic risks from US tariffs. Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance that the central bank will lower the cash rate by another 25bps to 3.60% at its next meeting in July.