标准普尔/澳交所200指数周四下跌0.2%，至8160点左右，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，因市场保持谨慎。在美联储决定保持利率稳定之后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示将采取谨慎态度，并排除了为应对关税的潜在经济影响而先发制人降息的可能性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他不会将降低对中国的关税作为恢复贸易谈判的先决条件，这加剧了投资者的不安。美国和中国高级官员计划本周末在瑞士会晤，讨论贸易关系，这进一步加剧了地缘政治紧张局势。澳交所的主要亏损是澳新银行集团（-2.2%）、西太平洋银行（-3.6%）、CSL有限公司（-1%）、伍德赛德能源公司（-1%-）和皮尔巴拉矿业公司（-7.3%）。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2% to around 8,160 on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session as market caution took hold. The pullback followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling a cautious approach and ruling out a preemptive rate cut in response to the potential economic impacts of tariffs. Adding to investor unease, US President Donald Trump stated he would not reduce tariffs on China as a precondition for resuming trade negotiations. Top US and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade relations, adding further geopolitical tension. Leading losses on the ASX were ANZ Group (-2.2%), Westpac Banking (-3.6%), CSL Ltd (-1%), Woodside Energy (-1%), and Pilbara Minerals (-7.3%).

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元技术分析——美元进入联邦公开市场委员会有点喜忧参半。在我们等待联邦公开市场委员会的声明和新闻发布会时，美元有点吵。目前，我们正在等待美联储的下一个信号。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Technical Analysis – US Dollar a Bit Mixed Heading Into FOMC.The US dollar has been a bit noisy as we wait for the FOMC statement and press conference. At this point in time, we wait for the next signal from the Federal Reserve.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率微跌至4.31%，最新数据突显出该国工业部门持续面临的挑战。尽管艾集团工业指数在4月份有所上升，但已连续第33个月出现收缩，贸易和选举相关的不确定性严重影响了制造业，尤其是在出口暴露地区。这一发展增强了人们的预期，即澳大利亚储备银行可能会在本月晚些时候的会议上将其现金利率下调25个基点至3.85%。在其他地方，美国和中国高级官员将于本周晚些时候在瑞士举行会谈，这标志着世界上最大的两个经济体之间旨在解决贸易战的首次正式公开接触。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell slightly to 4.31% as latest data highlighted persistent challenges in the country’s industrial sector. Although the Ai Group Industry Index rose in April, it remained in contraction for the 33rd consecutive month, with trade and election-related uncertainties weighing heavily on manufacturing—especially in export-exposed areas. This development have reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut its cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% at its meeting later this month. Elsewhere, top U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks in Switzerland later this week, marking the first official public engagement between the world’s two largest economies aimed at resolving a trade war.

周三，澳元从五个月高点回落至0.65美元以下，受美元整体走强的拖累，此前有报道称，美国和中国高级官员本周将在瑞士举行会议讨论贸易问题。尽管有所回落，但鉴于澳大利亚对中国的贸易敞口很大，围绕美中贸易潜在突破的乐观情绪仍支撑着澳元。中国人民银行宣布计划下调关键贷款利率和降低银行存款准备金率以刺激经济增长，进一步支持了市场情绪。在国内，经济数据显示，4月份澳大利亚工业部门持续疲软，贸易和选举相关的不确定性给制造业活动带来压力。在货币政策方面，市场预计澳大利亚储备银行将在5月份的会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至3.85%。

The Australian dollar slipped back below $0.65 on Wednesday, retreating from five-month highs, weighed down by broader strength in the US dollar following reports that senior US and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland this week to discuss trade issues. Despite the pullback, the Australian dollar remains underpinned by optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade breakthrough, given Australia’s heavy trade exposure to China. Supporting sentiment further, the People’s Bank of China announced plans to cut key lending rates and reduce banks' reserve requirements to stimulate growth. Domestically, economic data showed continued weakness in Australia’s industrial sector in April, with trade and election-related uncertainties pressuring manufacturing activity. On the monetary policy front, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% at its May meeting.