澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.27%左右，接近四周多以来的最低水平，受鸽派储备银行前景的影响。第一季度GDP增长低于预期，而PMI调查显示5月份服务业和制造业扩张放缓。贸易顺差也收窄，反映出由于海外需求放缓，出口每月下降。这些疲软的经济指标支持央行进一步放松货币政策的理由，特别是考虑到澳大利亚储备银行的最新会议纪要强调，未来的政策决策仍将取决于数据。助理州长莎拉·亨特最近还警告说，“美国提高关税将减缓全球经济”，并警告说，不确定性的增加可能会减少澳大利亚的投资、产出和就业，进一步提高宽松货币政策的前景。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.27%, staying near its lowest level in over four weeks, weighed by a dovish Reserve Bank outlook. Q1 GDP growth came in below expectations, while PMI surveys indicated slowing expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors in May. The trade surplus also narrowed, reflecting a monthly decline in exports due to moderating overseas demand. These weakening economic indicators support the case for further monetary easing by the central bank, especially given the latest RBA minutes, which emphasized that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also recently cautioned that “higher US tariffs will slow down the global economy,” warning that increased uncertainty could reduce investment, output, and employment in Australia, further raising the prospects of looser monetary policy.

周五，澳元跌至0.650美元，结束了连续两天的上涨，在备受关注的美国月度就业报告公布前，市场情绪谨慎。投资者还权衡了周四特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平之间的电话，两位领导人在电话中同意恢复旨在结束正在进行的贸易战的贸易谈判。虽然这一发展对全球经济是积极的，但分析人士指出，在缺乏实质性进展的情况下，紧张局势仍然加剧。在货币政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行5月份会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为降息25个基点的理由更充分，突显出采取谨慎和可预测的方法的必要性。澳大利亚储备银行助理行长Sarah Hunter警告称，美国关税的提高和不确定性的增加可能会抑制全球经济增长，并对澳大利亚经济造成压力。与此同时，澳元获得支撑，因为美联储进一步降息的可能性越来越大，使美元面临压力。

The Australian dollar slipped toward $0.650 on Friday, ending a two-day winning streak amid cautious market sentiment ahead of the closely watched US monthly jobs report. Investors also weighed Thursday’s phone call between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, in which both leaders agreed to resume trade talks aimed at ending the ongoing trade war. While this development is positive for the global economy, analysts noted that tensions remain elevated amid a lack of substantive progress. On the monetary policy front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting revealed that policymakers saw a stronger case for a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting the need for a cautious and predictable approach. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that higher US tariffs and rising uncertainty could dampen global growth and weigh on Australia’s economy. Meanwhile, the Aussie found support as growing odds of additional Fed rate cuts kept the US dollar under pressure.

2025年4月，澳大利亚私人住宅审批量环比增长3.1%，达到七个月来的最高点9349套，证实了初步估计，并从3月份1.9%的下降中恢复过来。这也是自2024年3月以来私人住房许可证增长最快的一次，原因是新南威尔士州（+7.3%）、昆士兰州（+7.3%）和维多利亚州（+0.9%）的批准数量不断增加。与此同时，南澳大利亚州（-1.2%）和西澳大利亚州（-0.6%）的许可证数量有所下降。

Private house approvals in Australia increased by 3.1% month-over-month to a seven-month high of 9,349 units in April 2025, confirming preliminary estimates, and recovering from a 1.9% drop in March. This also marked the steepest growth in private house permits since March 2024, driven by rising approvals in New South Wales (+7.3%), Queensland (+7.3%), and Victoria (+0.9%). Meanwhile, permits declined to South Australia (-1.2%), and Western Australia (-0.6%).

经季节性调整后，澳大利亚批准的住宅总数环比下降5.7%，至2025年4月的8个月低点14633套，证实了初步估计，并从3月份的7.1%下降放缓。持续下降的主要原因是，除住房外的私营部门住房批准减少（-19%，3月份为14.4%）。另一方面，私人住宅的审批量在上个月下降1.9%后反弹了3.1%。按地区划分，新南威尔士州（-7.8%）、维多利亚州（-6.5%）和昆士兰州（-1.3%）的批准率下降，而塔斯马尼亚州（+12.7%）、西澳大利亚州（+9.6%）和南澳大利亚州（+9.5%）的批准人数上升。

The seasonally adjusted number of total dwellings approved in Australia fell 5.7% month-over-month to an eight-month low of 14,633 units in April 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and slowing from a 7.1% decline in March. The continued drop was mainly driven by a decrease in approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses (-19% vs 14.4% in March). On the other hand, approvals for private sector houses rebounded by 3.1%, following a 1.9% decline in the previous month. By region, approvals fell in New South Wales (-7.8%), Victoria (-6.5%), and Queensland (-1.3%), while rising in Tasmania (+12.7%), Western Australia (+9.6%), and South Australia (+9.5%).