欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周一早盘美元走软。美元在周一早盘交易中下跌了一点，因为交易员们正在关注美联储周三的会议和公告，以确定美元的走势。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softer in Early Monday Trading.The US dollar has lost a bit of strength in early Monday trading, as traders are looking to the Federal Reserve meeting and announcement on Wednesday to determine where the US dollar is heading toward.

中国经济下滑，澳元小幅走高。澳元正在走出4月以来最好的一周，上涨1.4%。在欧洲市场，澳元/美元交易价格为0.6657，当日上涨0.12%。

China's Economy Slips, Australian Dollar Edges Higher.The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since April, posting gains of 1.4%. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6657, up 0.12% on the day.

随着对储备银行进一步降息的预期减弱，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.29%左右，延续了其从上周四周多低点的复苏。在澳大利亚7月强劲的贸易顺差、第二季度稳健的国内生产总值和7月高于预期的通货膨胀的支持下，掉期现在定价为9月政策不变的可能性为86%。澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock最近还强调了私营部门温和增长的早期迹象，称这是对整体经济的积极信号。她的言论突显了央行的谨慎态度，并增强了市场对进一步宽松政策可能是渐进的预期。展望未来，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会为央行的货币政策轨迹及其对今年剩余时间的展望提供更多见解。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.29%, extending its recovery from a more than four-week low last week, as expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts diminished. Swaps are now pricing in an 86% probability of unchanged policy in September, supported by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter-than-expected July inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also recently highlighted early signs of modest growth in the private sector, describing it as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks underscored the central bank’s cautious approach and strengthened market expectations that any further easing is likely to be gradual. Looking ahead, investor attention is shifting to the forthcoming employment report and scheduled speeches by RBA officials, which could provide additional insight into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory and its outlook for the remainder of the year.

周一，澳元上涨至0.66美元左右，延续了上周的涨幅，在本周晚些时候备受期待的联邦公开市场委员会政策决定之前，美元走软。市场目前预计，周三降息25个基点的可能性为96%，而加息50个基点的几率只有4%。在国内方面，本周澳大利亚的经济日历仍然相对清淡。然而，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会进一步了解央行的政策轨迹。上周，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克强调了私营部门“略有增长”的令人鼓舞的迹象，称这对更广泛的经济来说是一个积极的信号。她的言论强化了澳大利亚储备银行的谨慎立场，并支持了市场对央行将在本月底即将举行的政策会议上保持利率不变的预期。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.66 on Monday, extending gains from the previous week amid a softer greenback ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision later this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, with only a slim 4% chance of a larger 50 bps move. On the domestic front, Australia’s economic calendar remains relatively light this week. However, investor focus is shifting toward the upcoming employment report and scheduled speeches from RBA officials, which could offer further insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory. Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted encouraging signs of “a little bit more growth” in the private sector, characterizing this as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks reinforced the RBA’s cautious stance and supported market expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting at the end of the month.