随着对储备银行进一步降息的预期减弱，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.29%左右，延续了其从上周四周多低点的复苏。在澳大利亚7月强劲的贸易顺差、第二季度稳健的国内生产总值和7月高于预期的通货膨胀的支持下，掉期现在定价为9月政策不变的可能性为86%。澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock最近还强调了私营部门温和增长的早期迹象，称这是对整体经济的积极信号。她的言论突显了央行的谨慎态度，并增强了市场对进一步宽松政策可能是渐进的预期。展望未来，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会为央行的货币政策轨迹及其对今年剩余时间的展望提供更多见解。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.29%, extending its recovery from a more than four-week low last week, as expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts diminished. Swaps are now pricing in an 86% probability of unchanged policy in September, supported by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter-than-expected July inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also recently highlighted early signs of modest growth in the private sector, describing it as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks underscored the central bank’s cautious approach and strengthened market expectations that any further easing is likely to be gradual. Looking ahead, investor attention is shifting to the forthcoming employment report and scheduled speeches by RBA officials, which could provide additional insight into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory and its outlook for the remainder of the year.

周一，澳元上涨至0.66美元左右，延续了上周的涨幅，在本周晚些时候备受期待的联邦公开市场委员会政策决定之前，美元走软。市场目前预计，周三降息25个基点的可能性为96%，而加息50个基点的几率只有4%。在国内方面，本周澳大利亚的经济日历仍然相对清淡。然而，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会进一步了解央行的政策轨迹。上周，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克强调了私营部门“略有增长”的令人鼓舞的迹象，称这对更广泛的经济来说是一个积极的信号。她的言论强化了澳大利亚储备银行的谨慎立场，并支持了市场对央行将在本月底即将举行的政策会议上保持利率不变的预期。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.66 on Monday, extending gains from the previous week amid a softer greenback ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision later this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, with only a slim 4% chance of a larger 50 bps move. On the domestic front, Australia’s economic calendar remains relatively light this week. However, investor focus is shifting toward the upcoming employment report and scheduled speeches from RBA officials, which could offer further insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory. Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted encouraging signs of “a little bit more growth” in the private sector, characterizing this as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks reinforced the RBA’s cautious stance and supported market expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting at the end of the month.

澳大利亚澳新银行因债券交易和客户违规支付1.6亿美元。澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团将支付巨额罚款。处罚是针对不当行为，包括向已故客户收费。

Australia's ANZ to pay $160 million over bond deal, customer violations.Australia and New Zealand Banking Group will pay a hefty fine. The penalty is for misconduct including charging deceased customers.

澳大利亚证券交易所200指数周一下跌0.6%，至8814点，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，银行和黄金股的显著下跌对该指数造成了压力。澳大利亚联邦银行下跌1.1%，澳新银行集团控股公司下跌0.5%，此前澳新银行宣布与澳大利亚证券和投资委员会（ASIC）就其市场和零售部门的违规行为达成2.4亿澳元的和解。黄金矿商也拖累了该指数，Evolution Mining和Northern Star Resources是跌幅最大的公司之一，分别暴跌6.1%和2.2%。其他显著落后者包括CSL Limited（-2%）、Block，股份有限公司（-1.8%）和Macquarie Group（-1.4%）。在国内，本周的经济日历相对平静，尽管人们的注意力转向了即将公布的澳大利亚就业数据和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会为央行的政策前景提供更多线索。

The ASX 200 fell 0.6% to 8,814 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, as notable losses in banking and gold stocks weighed on the index. Commonwealth Bank of Australia lost 1.1%, while ANZ Group Holdings fell 0.5% after announcing a A$240 million settlement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) over breaches across its markets and retail divisions. Gold miners also dragged on the index, with Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources among the top decliners, plunging 6.1% and 2.2%, respectively. Other notable laggards included CSL Limited (-2%), Block, Inc. (-1.8%), and Macquarie Group (-1.4%). Domestically, the economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, though attention is turning to upcoming Australian employment data and scheduled speeches from RBA officials, which could provide further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook.