澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.41%左右，创下近五周新高，因投资者降低了对储备银行近期降息的预期。此举是在央行上周决定保持利率稳定之后做出的，同时警告称，未来几个季度通胀可能会居高不下，这可能排除了进一步宽松政策的可能性。月度通胀指标在8月份下降后，9月份有所上升，加剧了人们对持续价格压力的担忧。期货目前定价，11月现金利率下调25个基点至3.65%的可能性仅为40%左右，低于一个月前近乎完全的预期。投资者现在等待澳大利亚储备银行官员的评论和10月份消费者通胀预期的公布，以获得进一步的政策线索。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.41%, hitting a nearly five-week high as investors pared back expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. The move followed the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady last week while warning that inflation could remain elevated over the coming quarters, potentially ruling out further easing. Reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures, the monthly inflation gauge rose in September after declining in August. Futures are now pricing in only about a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut to the 3.65% cash rate in November, down from near-full expectations a month earlier. Investors now await comments from RBA officials and the release of consumer inflation expectations for October for further policy cues.

周二，澳元微涨至0.661美元左右，连续第三个交易日上涨，市场下调了对澳大利亚储备银行近期宽松政策的预期。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克最近表示，由于消费者支出增加和通货膨胀加剧，特别是住房和服务业的通货膨胀，降低了降息的必要性，利率可能会保持不变。投资者现在认为，11月降息25个基点的可能性只有40%左右，低于一个月前几乎确定的可能性。在经济方面，西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所10月份消费者信心指数环比下跌3.5%，至92.1，这是自4月以来最大的收缩，反映出家庭对持续通胀的担忧加剧。除了经济逆风，澳新银行澳大利亚招聘广告在9月份下降了3.3%，这是连续第三个月下降，也是自2024年2月以来的最大跌幅，加剧了人们对劳动力市场前景的担忧。

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.661 on Tuesday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, as markets dialed back expectations for near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently indicated that rates will likely remain on hold as stronger consumer spending and rising inflation, particularly in housing and services, reduce the need for cuts. Investors now price in only about a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, down from near certainty a month ago. On the economic front, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.5% month-on-month to 92.1 in October, marking the steepest contraction since April and reflecting rising household concerns over persistent inflation. Adding to the economic headwinds, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads dropped 3.3% in September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest since February 2024, fueling worries about the labor market outlook.

澳大利亚西太平洋银行消费者信心暴跌至坚定悲观水平，澳大利亚储备银行11月降息不确定。根据西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所的调查，10月份澳大利亚消费者信心下降了3.5%，至92.1，抹去了5月至8月期间的所有涨幅，当时降息短暂提振了信心。该指数已回到“极度悲观”的区间，表明家庭再次保持谨慎。

Australia Westpac consumer sentiment slumps to firmly pessimistic level, RBA November cut not assured.Australian consumer sentiment dropped -3.5% mom to 92.1 in October, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey, erasing all gains seen between May and August when rate cuts briefly lifted confidence. The index has returned to “firmly pessimistic” territory, signaling renewed caution among households.

澳大利亚股市周二下跌0.3%，至8953点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为银行业和消费业的疲软对指数造成了压力。澳大利亚联邦银行下跌1.2%，而澳大利亚国民银行和西太平洋银行分别下跌0.7%，此前该行业上周反弹3%，因预计利率将在更长时间内保持高位。消费类股票也对经济下滑起到了推波助澜的作用，Woolworths Group（-1.1%）、Coles Group Ltd（-0.8%）和Inghams Group（-0.8%。相反，矿业巨头力拓集团宣布投资7.33亿美元，与日本合资伙伴一起在西澳大利亚州皮尔巴拉地区开发新的铁矿床，随后股价上涨近1%。在经济方面，澳大利亚西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所消费者信心指数在2025年10月环比下跌3.5%，至92.1，跌幅比9月的3.1%更大，是自4月以来的最大跌幅。

The Australian market fell 0.3% to 8,953 on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as weakness in the banking and consumer sectors weighed on the index. Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 1.2%, while National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation each declined 0.7%, following a 3% rally in the sector last week amid expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. Consumer stocks also contributed to the downturn, with notable declines in Woolworths Group (-1.1%), Coles Group Ltd (-0.8%), and Inghams Group (-0.8%). Conversely, mining giant Rio Tinto rose nearly 1% after announcing a $733 million investment, alongside its Japanese joint venture partners to develop new iron ore deposits in Western Australia's Pilbara region. On the economic front, Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.5% month-on-month to 92.1 in October 2025, a sharper decline than the 3.1% drop recorded in September and the steepest since April.