周一,澳元从上一交易日1.1%的飙升回落至0.648美元以下,美元似乎正试图从美联储主席鲍威尔的温和讲话中复苏。在周五举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会上,鲍威尔在9月17日的会议上表示,可能会降息,理由是就业风险上升。市场目前预计,在演讲结束后,9月份降息25个基点的可能性接近85%,预计到年底将总共降息48个基点。即将公布的关键数据,包括周三的个人消费支出通胀指标和周五的8月就业人数,将影响美联储的下一步行动。在国内,澳大利亚储备银行上周将现金利率下调25个基点至3.60%,预计将保持谨慎,市场预计11月可能会大幅下调50个基点。交易员们现在正在等待周二8月会议的纪要,该会议将进一步了解央行的政策立场。
The Australian dollar weakened to below $0.648 on Monday, pulling back from a 1.1% surge in the previous session, with the US dollar seen attempting to recover from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech. At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut at the September 17 meeting, citing rising risks to employment. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut in September after the speech, with a total of 48 bps of reductions expected by year-end. Key upcoming data, including the PCE inflation gauge on Wednesday and August payrolls on Friday, will influence the Fed’s next moves. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 bps last week to 3.60% and is expected to remain cautious, with markets pricing in a possible larger 50-basis-point cut in November. Traders now await minutes from the August meeting due on Tuesday, which will offer further insights into the central bank’s policy stance.