欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元小幅反弹。周五，美元继续对几种货币进行反击，因为我们看到市场再次恢复了一些平衡。毕竟，美元最近被大幅抛售，所以迟早会发生某种斗争。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Fighting Back a Bit.The US dollar continues to fight back against several currencies on Friday, as we are seeing a bit of balance come back into the markets again. After all, the USD was dumped hard recently, so some kind of fight would be expected sooner or later.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五下跌0.5%，收于8667点，连续第二天下跌，因铁矿石价格下跌对主要矿业股造成沉重压力。投资者在下周公布第二季度通胀数据之前也更加谨慎，这可能会影响澳大利亚储备银行即将做出的利率决定。人们普遍预计，澳大利亚储备银行将在8月12日的会议上降息25个基点，因为有迹象表明，总体通胀和削减后的平均通胀都在持续放缓。在特朗普总统8月1日的最后期限之前，正在进行的美国贸易谈判也加剧了更广泛的不确定性。明显落后的包括冠军铁（-4.9%）、AMP（-4.8%）、Clarity Pharmaceuticals（-4.6%）、贝尔维尤黄金（-4.5%）和Genesis Minerals（-4.2%）。本周，ASX 200指数下跌1%，为4月以来最糟糕的单周表现。

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.5% to close at 8,667 on Friday, extending its losing streak to a second day, as falling iron ore prices weighed heavily on major mining stocks. Investor caution also intensified ahead of next week’s second-quarter inflation data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming rate decision. The RBA is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its August 12 meeting, amid signs of continued moderation in both headline and trimmed mean inflation. Broader uncertainty was also fueled by ongoing US trade talks ahead of President Trump's August 1 deadline. Notable laggards included Champion Iron (-4.9%), AMP (-4.8%), Clarity Pharmaceuticals (-4.6%), Bellevue Gold (-4.5%), and Genesis Minerals (-4.2%). For the week, the ASX 200 lost 1%, its worst weekly performance since April.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅降至4.35%，此前在上一交易日触及一周高点，因为美国贸易协议的进展提振了缓解特朗普总统关税影响的希望。有报道称，继最近与日本达成类似协议后，美国和欧盟即将敲定一项协议，将欧洲进口关税降至15%。在国内，市场对澳大利亚储备银行8月份降息的预期略有下降，隐含概率从本周早些时候的近100%降至86%。此前，美联储理事米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）对劳动力市场疲软的担忧不屑一顾，并警告称，潜在通胀可能需要比之前预期的稍长的时间才能达到央行2-3%目标区间的中点。投资者现在关注的是下周公布的第二季度通胀数据，这是澳大利亚储备银行在做出下一个政策决定之前一直密切关注的一个关键信息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged down to 4.35%, after hitting a one-week high in the previous session as progress in US trade deals boosted hopes of easing the impact of President Trump's tariffs. Reports suggested that the US and EU are close to finalizing a deal that would lower tariffs on European imports to 15%, following a similar agreement recently reached with Japan. Domestically, market expectations for an August rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia have eased slightly, with implied probabilities falling to 86% from nearly 100% earlier in the week. This shift comes after Governor Michele Bullock brushed off concerns about a softening labor market and warned that underlying inflation may take slightly longer than previously anticipated to reach the midpoint of the central bank’s 2–3% target range. Investors are now focused on next week’s release of second-quarter inflation data—a key input the RBA has been closely monitoring ahead of its next policy decision.

周五，澳元跌至0.658美元左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为投资者在下周公布的关键通胀数据之前仍持谨慎态度。月度和季度通胀数据都将公布，这可能在塑造澳大利亚储备银行的货币政策前景方面发挥关键作用。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克最近强调，在有更有力的证据表明通货膨胀正在可持续地恢复到2.5%的目标之前，央行不愿意降息，她为澳大利亚储备银行缓慢而稳定的做法辩护。与此同时，投资者正密切关注美澳贸易关系的发展。在最新进展中，澳大利亚已同意放宽对美国牛肉进口的限制——这一决定是在之前的贸易限制引发紧张局势之后做出的。尽管连续两个交易日下跌，但该货币仍有望大幅上涨。

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.658 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as investors remained cautious ahead of key inflation data due next week. Both monthly and quarterly inflation figures are set to be released, which could play a key role in shaping the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy outlook. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasized that the central bank is reluctant to cut interest rates until there is stronger evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2.5% target, as she defended the RBA’s slow and steady approach. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching developments in US–Australia trade relations. In the latest development, Australia has agreed to ease restrictions on US beef imports—a decision that follows tensions over previous trade limitations. Despite two sessions of losses, the currency is still on track for significant gains.