不给糖就捣蛋？通胀扰乱澳大利亚储备银行，等待现金利率下调的时间更长。可能需要一个多季度的时间才能消除9月份季度CPI的冲击。预计5月和8月将两次下调现金利率；推迟启动将导致进一步的宽松政策。

Trick or Treat? Inflation Spooks RBA, Longer Wait for Cash Rate Cuts.It will likely take more than one quarter to undo the shock of the September quarter CPI. Two cash rate cuts expected, in May and August; a later start would induce additional easing.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五上涨0.4%，至8920点左右，结束了连续三个交易日的下跌，这得益于黄金股和矿商因大宗商品价格上涨而上涨。黄金矿商在追踪金价时领涨，金价一夜之间恢复了一些强势。行业领军企业纽蒙特和巴里克矿业分别上涨超过3%。此外，矿业巨头力拓（RioTinto）和莱纳斯稀土（Lynas Rare Earths）领涨，分别上涨0.8%和2.1%。金融股也上涨，“四大”银行上涨0.6%至1.5%。在美国和中国同意缓解贸易紧张局势后，投资者继续权衡经济前景。在韩国达成的停战协议暂停了稀土出口争端，尽管分析人士指出，双方都在为未来的谈判保留筹码。本周，澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）将出现自3月下旬以来的最大跌幅，这是由于越来越多的人押注澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）将在11月保持利率，而通胀报告却出乎意料地强劲。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% to around 8,920 on Friday, snapping its three-session losing streak, buoyed by gains in gold stocks and miners on higher commodity prices. Gold miners led the charge as they tracked bullion prices, which regained some strength overnight. Sector leaders Newmont and Barrick Mining climbed over 3% each. Additionally, heavyweight miners extended gains, led by mining giants Rio Tinto and Lynas Rare Earths, up 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. Financials also advanced, with the “Big Four” banks rising between 0.6% and 1.5%. Investors continued to weigh the economic outlook after US and China agreed to ease trade tensions. The truce, reached in South Korea, paused a dispute over rare earth exports, though analysts noted both sides are keeping leverage for future talks. For the week, the ASX is on track for its sharpest drop since late March, weighed by growing bets that the RBA will hold rates in November amid a surprisingly strong inflation report.

2025年9月，澳大利亚私营部门信贷环比增长0.6%，与上月持平，但超过了市场预期的0.5%的增长。住房（0.6%）和个人贷款（0.5%）的信贷增长保持稳定，但商业贷款的信贷增长有所放缓（8月份为0.4%对0.6%）。私人信贷同比增长7.3%，8月份增长7.2%，为2023年1月以来最快增速。

Australia’s private sector credit rose 0.6% month-on-month in September 2025, matching the pace of the previous month but exceeding market expectations of a 0.5% increase. Credit growth was steady for housing (at 0.6%) and personal loans (at 0.5%) but eased for business lending (0.4% vs 0.6% in August). On an annual basis, private credit grew 7.3%, following a 7.2% increase in August and marking the fastest expansion since January 2023.

2025年第三季度，澳大利亚最终需求生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨1.0%，高于上一季度0.7%的涨幅，超过了市场预期的0.8%的涨幅。这标志着生产者通胀连续第21个季度出现，也是2024年第三季度以来的最快增速，住宅房地产行业的持续需求仍然是增长的关键因素。受强劲需求和住宅物业租金上涨的支撑，房地产运营商领涨（1.0%）。与此同时，受需求略有上升和劳动力成本上升的推动，住宅建筑建设增长了1.2%。按年度计算，第三季度生产者价格指数上涨3.5%，略高于第二季度3.4%的涨幅，这是自2021年第三季度以来的最低涨幅。

Australia's final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, accelerating from a 0.7% rise in the previous quarter and surpassing market estimates of a 0.8% increase. It marked the 21st consecutive quarter of producer inflation and the fastest pace since Q3 2024, with sustained demand in the residential property sector remaining a key contributor to growth. Property operators led the rise (1.0%), supported by strong demand and rising rents for residential properties. At the same time, residential building construction rose 1.2%, driven by a slight uptick in demand and higher labour costs. On an annual basis, producer prices rose 3.5% in Q3, accelerating slightly from a 3.4% gain in Q2, which was the softest increase since Q3 2021.