澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率攀升至4.36%，贸易谈判的进展提振了风险偏好。有报道称，欧盟和美国即将达成一项贸易协议，对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，这与本周早些时候与日本达成的类似协议相呼应。强劲的国内经济数据也提振了市场情绪。7月份，澳大利亚的商业活动飙升至三年多来的最高水平，这得益于服务业16个月来最快的增长和制造业产出的回升。与此同时，澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock周四表示，央行政策委员会认为适当的降息方式是“有节制和渐进的”，并指出劳动力需求仍然强劲，而核心通胀正在逐步缓解。尽管如此，市场预计在8月份的澳大利亚储备银行下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性接近100%，预计到年底利率将触底至3.10%。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 4.36%, as progress in trade negotiations boosted risk appetite. Reports suggested that the EU and the US are nearing a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports—mirroring a similar deal reached with Japan earlier this week. Market sentiment was also buoyed by strong domestic economic data. Business activity in Australia surged to its highest level in over three years in July, driven by the fastest growth in the services sector in 16 months and a pickup in manufacturing output. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the central bank’s policy board views a “measured and gradual” approach to rate cuts as appropriate, noting that labor demand remains strong while core inflation is gradually easing. Still, markets are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25bps cut at the RBA’s next meeting in August, with rates expected to bottom out at 3.10% by year-end.

InvestingLive亚太外汇新闻总结：特斯拉令人失望，澳大利亚储备银行8月削减问题。美国财报季在常规交易会结束后继续，特斯拉公布了十多年来最大的季度收入下降。由于来自低成本中国电动汽车的竞争加剧以及公众对首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的强烈反对，收入同比下降了30亿美元。

InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tesla disappoints, RBA August cut questions.U.S. earnings season continued after the regular session close, with Tesla posting its largest quarterly revenue drop in over a decade. Revenue fell by $3 billion year-over-year amid rising competition from lower-cost Chinese EVs and growing public backlash against CEO Elon Musk.

澳大利亚PMI综合指数飙升至53.6，但通胀担忧挥之不去。7月份，澳大利亚私营部门扩张更为强劲，标准普尔全球综合采购经理人指数从51.6升至53.6。服务业从51.8急剧上升到53.8。

Australia PMI composite surges to 53.6, but inflation concerns linger.Australia's private sector expanded more strongly in July, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising from 51.6 to 53.6. Services led the way with a sharp rise from 51.8 to 53.8.

周四，澳元走强至0.661美元左右，延续了五个交易日的涨势，达到去年11月以来的最高水平，这得益于对最新全球贸易发展的乐观情绪。据欧盟委员会官员称，据报道，美国和欧盟即将达成一项贸易协议，对大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，同时免除部分商品的关税。财政部长斯科特·贝森特也证实，美国和中国官员下周将在斯德哥尔摩举行进一步会谈。这些发展是在最近的美日关税协议之后出现的，该协议有助于缓解全球贸易紧张局势。美国还与菲律宾和印度尼西亚达成了单独的协议。在澳大利亚，7月份的商业活动以2022年4月以来的最快速度扩张，这得益于三个月来制造业产出的首次增长和服务业的急剧加速，这是由强劲的新订单和持续的招聘推动的，尽管出口需求仍然疲软，商业信心减弱。

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.661 on Thursday, extending its five-session rally to hit its highest level since November last year, fueled by optimism over latest global trade developments. The US and EU are reportedly close to a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on most imports while waiving duties on select items, according to European Commission officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also confirmed that US and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm next week for further talks. These developments follow a recent US–Japan tariff agreement that helped ease global trade tensions. The US has also secured separate deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. In Australia, business activity expanded at its fastest rate since April 2022 in July, boosted by the first rise in manufacturing output in three months and a sharp acceleration in services, fueled by strong new orders and ongoing hiring—even as export demand remained weak and business confidence softened.