澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率攀升至4.36%,贸易谈判的进展提振了风险偏好。有报道称,欧盟和美国即将达成一项贸易协议,对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税,这与本周早些时候与日本达成的类似协议相呼应。强劲的国内经济数据也提振了市场情绪。7月份,澳大利亚的商业活动飙升至三年多来的最高水平,这得益于服务业16个月来最快的增长和制造业产出的回升。与此同时,澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock周四表示,央行政策委员会认为适当的降息方式是“有节制和渐进的”,并指出劳动力需求仍然强劲,而核心通胀正在逐步缓解。尽管如此,市场预计在8月份的澳大利亚储备银行下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性接近100%,预计到年底利率将触底至3.10%。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 4.36%, as progress in trade negotiations boosted risk appetite. Reports suggested that the EU and the US are nearing a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports—mirroring a similar deal reached with Japan earlier this week. Market sentiment was also buoyed by strong domestic economic data. Business activity in Australia surged to its highest level in over three years in July, driven by the fastest growth in the services sector in 16 months and a pickup in manufacturing output. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the central bank’s policy board views a “measured and gradual” approach to rate cuts as appropriate, noting that labor demand remains strong while core inflation is gradually easing. Still, markets are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25bps cut at the RBA’s next meeting in August, with rates expected to bottom out at 3.10% by year-end.