澳大利亚储备银行持有后，澳元小幅下跌；日元公司再次进行口头干预。澳大利亚储备银行将现金利率维持在3.60%不变后，澳元小幅下跌，市场完全预期此举。政策保持几乎没有什么意外，关键是澳大利亚储备银行的最新预测表明今年不会进一步降息，这反映了近期通胀的大幅上调。

Aussie Mildly Lower After RBA Hold; Yen Firms on Fresh Verbal Intervention.Australian Dollar traded mildly lower after the RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, a move fully expected by markets. The policy hold came with few surprises, and the key takeaway was that the RBA's updated forecasts signal no further rate cuts this year, reflecting a sharper upward revision in near-term inflation.

周二，澳元贬值超过0.652美元，连续第五个交易日下跌，因为澳大利亚储备银行在持续的通货膨胀和经济不确定性下将基准利率保持在3.60%。今年早些时候，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）一直在发出“观望”的信号，指出进一步的政策调整将取决于即将公布的数据，特别是通胀可持续地恢复到2%-3%的目标区间。然而，第三季度消费者价格指数使这一前景变得更加复杂，标题和削减后的平均通胀率均高于预期，这表明潜在的价格压力仍然根深蒂固。澳大利亚储备银行还指出，包括地缘政治风险和贸易紧张局势在内的全球不确定性可能会减缓需求，削弱国内劳动力市场状况。从外部来看，在美联储官员对潜在降息的时机采取了更为谨慎的态度后，澳元兑美元再次面临压力。

The Australian dollar depreciated past $0.652 on Tuesday, marking its fifth consecutive session of losses as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.60% amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. Earlier this year, RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been signaling a “wait-and-see” approach, noting that further policy adjustments would depend on incoming data, particularly inflation returning sustainably to the 2%–3% target range. However, the Q3 CPI complicated this outlook, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation rising more than expected, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain entrenched. The RBA also noted that global uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and trade tensions, could slow demand and weaken domestic labor market conditions. Externally, the Australian dollar came under renewed pressure against the greenback after the Federal Reserve officials adopted a more cautious tone on the timing of potential rate cuts.

澳元前景：澳大利亚储备银行鹰派基调挑战宽松预期。澳大利亚储备银行11月的决定是暂停，但不是鸽派。最新预测显示，通货膨胀率多年来一直高于目标，失业率几乎没有上升，尽管削减幅度比之前假设的要小，但增长保持稳定。

AUD outlook: RBA's hawkish tone challenges easing expectations.The RBA's November decision was a hold, but not a dovish one. Updated forecasts show inflation staying above target for years, unemployment barely rising, and growth holding firm despite fewer cuts than previously assumed.

澳大利亚储备银行在2025年11月的会议上将其现金利率保持在3.6%不变，符合市场共识，并将借贷成本维持在2023年4月以来的最低水平。央行指出，尽管9月份通货膨胀率暂时上升，但已从2022年的峰值大幅回落。董事会假设2026年再降息一次，预计短期内潜在通胀率将升至3%以上，到2027年将放缓至2.6%左右。政策制定者强调了国内和全球前景的持续不确定性，包括私人需求强于预期，这可能会收紧劳动力市场并加剧通货膨胀，而经济放缓可能会对增长造成压力。在全球范围内，尽管世界经济增长预测上调，但地缘政治和贸易紧张局势加剧的风险仍然存在。金融状况有所缓解，但早期削减的全面影响需要时间。澳大利亚储备银行保持谨慎，依赖数据，密切关注通胀、需求和劳动力趋势。

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% during its November 2025 meeting, in line with market consensus and maintaining borrowing costs at their lowest since April 2023. The central bank noted that inflation has eased sharply from its 2022 peak, despite a temporary uptick in September. The board assumes one more rate cut in 2026, with underlying inflation expected to rise above 3% in the near term before moderating to around 2.6% by 2027. Policymakers highlighted ongoing uncertainty in both domestic and global outlooks, including stronger-than-expected private demand that could tighten labor markets and fuel inflation, while a slowdown could weigh on growth. Globally, elevated geopolitical and trade tensions remain risks despite upward revisions to world growth forecasts. Financial conditions have eased, but the full impact of earlier cuts will take time. The RBA remains cautious and data-dependent, closely monitoring inflation, demand, and labor trends.