标准普尔全球澳大利亚制造业采购经理人指数从5月份的51.0降至6月份的50.6，为2月份以来的最低水平。由于客户库存充足和市场状况疲软，新订单五个月来首次下降，产量略有下降。虽然新订单的总体收缩幅度不大，但出口需求急剧下降，小组成员指出，美国贸易政策对全球对澳大利亚商品的需求产生了负面影响。由于不愿增加库存，采购量连续第二个月收缩，这反映了经济活动的疲软。随着商品生产商对需求下降的反应，生产前和生产后的库存都耗尽了。尽管经济放缓，但随着公司增加员工以管理现有工作量，就业率仍在继续上升，尽管增速为四个月来最低。劳动力容量的增加，加上新订单的减少，导致积压工作进一步大幅下降。

The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in June from 51.0 in May, its lowest reading since February. Output declined slightly as new orders fell for the first time in five months, due to adequate client inventories and weaker market conditions. While the overall contraction in new orders was marginal, export demand dropped sharply, with panellists pointing to negative impacts from U.S. trade policy on global demand for Australian goods. Reflecting the softening activity, purchasing volumes contracted for a second straight month amid reluctance to build inventory. Both pre- and post-production inventories were depleted as goods producers responded to declining demand. Despite the slowdown, employment continued to rise, though at the weakest pace in four months, as firms added staff to manage existing workloads. The increase in labor capacity, combined with fewer new orders, contributed to a further sharp drop in backlogged work.

2025年6月，澳大利亚CoreLogic房屋价值指数环比上涨0.6%，高于5月的0.5%，创下2024年6月以来的最大月度涨幅。这一增长是由于利率下降导致市场情绪改善。在主要城市中，珀斯以0.8%的涨幅领先，其次是布里斯班（0.7%）、悉尼（0.6%）以及阿德莱德和墨尔本（0.5%）。按年度计算，全国房屋价值上涨2.7%。与此同时，租金增长继续放缓，过去12个月全国租金上涨3.4%，为2021年初以来最低年增长率。

The CoreLogic Home Value Index in Australia rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June 2025, up from a 0.5% increase in May, marking the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. The uptick was driven by improved market sentiment amid falling interest rates. Among major cities, Perth led the gains with a 0.8% rise, followed by Brisbane (0.7%), Sydney (0.6%), and both Adelaide and Melbourne (0.5%). On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up 3.4% over the past 12 months—the slowest annual increase since early 2021.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续呈现混合走势。周一早盘交易中，美元继续呈现涨跌互现的局面。此时，美元有点超卖，但亚洲和欧洲对待美元的方式似乎存在分歧。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Look Mixed.The US dollar continues to look mixed at best in early market trading on Monday. At this point in time, the USD is a bit oversold, but there seems to be a bifurcation between how Asia treats the dollar, and how Europe does.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.18%，从8个月低点反弹，因为投资者消化了最近的数据，并在下周的利率决定之前等待更多数据。墨尔本研究所的月度通胀指标在6月份环比微涨0.1%，扭转了5月份0.4%的跌幅。与此同时，私营部门信贷增长放缓，低于预期，表明信贷需求疲软，经济活动降温。此前，上周5月通胀率降幅超过预期，接近储备银行2-3%目标区间的下限，并加强了7月降息的理由。尽管如此，经济学家指出，澳大利亚储备银行可能会保持谨慎，理由是劳动力市场状况紧张、生产率低下以及需求复苏带来的持续价格压力。投资者现在关注5月零售销售、制造业采购经理人指数和贸易数据，以进一步了解澳大利亚的增长前景和政策路径。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.18%, rebounding from an eight-month low as investors digested recent data and awaited more ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% decline in May. Meanwhile, private sector credit growth slowed and missed expectations, signaling weaker credit demand and signs of cooling economic activity. This followed last week’s sharper-than-expected drop in May inflation, which brought it near the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range and strengthened the case for a rate cut in July. Still, economists noted the RBA is likely to remain cautious, citing tight labor market conditions, sluggish productivity, and lingering price pressures from recovering demand. Investors now look to May retail sales, manufacturing PMI and trade data for further clues on Australia’s growth outlook and policy path.