澳元/日元价格预测：大幅收复早盘跌幅。周五欧洲交易时段，澳元/日元收复了大部分早盘跌幅，并从92.32的盘中低点反弹。尽管如此，该货币对仍下跌0.5%，至93.30附近。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Recovers early losses sharply.The AUD/JPY pair claws back a majority of early losses and rebounds from the intraday low of 92.32 during European trading hours on Friday. Still, the pair is down 0.5% to near 93.30.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五下跌0.2%，收于8547点，连续第二个交易日下跌，地缘政治紧张局势升级和持续的关税风险打压市场情绪。尽管如此，该指数本周仍上涨0.4%，连续第五周上涨。以色列对伊朗核设施发动先发制人的袭击后，中东紧张局势加剧，加剧了人们对即将发生的报复和更广泛的地区冲突的担忧。特朗普威胁要重新征收关税，包括扩大钢铁关税以涵盖钢铁家电，这增加了压力。投资者现在正在等待美中贸易协议的细节，该协议尚未敲定。在国内，注意力转向下周公布的澳大利亚5月就业数据，这可能会影响澳大利亚储备银行的利率前景。在企业方面，矿业股领跌，如必和必拓集团（-2.3%）、力拓（-0.9%）和South32（-3.2%）。从好的方面来看，黄金矿商和能源公司在石油和金价飙升后飙升。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to close at 8,547 on Friday, marking its second consecutive session of losses, as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent tariff risks weighed on market sentiment. Still, the index managed to advance 0.4% for the week, its fifth straight weekly gain. Middle East tensions flared after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear sites, heightening fears of imminent retaliation and a broader regional conflict. Adding pressure, Trump threatened renewed tariffs, including an expansion of steel duties to cover steel-based appliances. Investors now await details on the US-China trade deal, which is yet to be finalized. At home, attention turns to Australia’s May employment data due next week, which may influence the RBA’s rate outlook. On the corporate front, mining stocks led losses, such as BHP Group (-2.3%), Rio Tinto (-0.9%), and South32 (-3.2%). On the upside, gold miners and energy firms surged following a spike in oil and bullion prices.

周五，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.15%，为5月1日以来的最低水平，因为以色列对伊朗发动空袭的消息传出后，投资者寻求安全。据报道，此次袭击的目标是伊朗的核设施和军事基础设施，标志着两国之间的紧张局势大幅升级，并加剧了人们对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧。国内债券收益率也受到澳大利亚储备银行货币政策宽松预期上升的拖累。市场目前预计，澳大利亚储备银行在7月份降息25个基点至3.60%，并在年底前降至3.10%的可能性为80%。这种温和的前景反映了一系列令人失望的经济数据，包括上周低于预期的第一季度GDP数据，这表明经济疲软。在美国，疲软的通胀数据和每周失业救济申请人数的增加提高了人们对美联储最早可能在9月恢复降息的预期。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 4.15% on Friday, its lowest level since May 1, as investors sought safety following news that Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran. The strikes, which reportedly targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, marked a major escalation in tensions between the two countries and fueled fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Domestic bond yields were also weighed down by rising expectations of monetary policy easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance that the RBA will cut rates by 25bps to 3.60% in July, and move to 3.10% by year-end. This dovish outlook reflects a string of disappointing economic data, including last week’s weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figures, which pointed to a sluggish economy. In the US, soft inflation readings and a rise in weekly jobless claims have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume cutting rates as early as September.

澳元周五走软至0.649美元，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，因中东紧张局势加剧，风险情绪恶化。在以色列对伊朗进行先发制人的打击之后，局势急剧升级，目标是德黑兰的核计划，并发誓要继续行动，直到威胁被消除。此举加剧了人们对伊朗报复和更广泛的地区冲突的担忧，给澳元等风险敏感货币带来了压力。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普再次发出关税威胁，加剧了市场的紧张情绪，包括从6月23日开始扩大钢铁关税，以涵盖钢铁家电，将税率从3月份的25%提高一倍至50%。投资者目前正在等待尚未敲定的美中贸易协议的进展。展望未来，人们的注意力转向下周公布的澳大利亚5月就业数据，该数据将在全球持续存在不确定性的情况下，为该国的经济健康状况提供新的见解。

The Australian dollar weakened toward $0.649 on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session as risk sentiment soured amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The sharp escalation followed Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, targeting Tehran’s nuclear program and vowing to continue operations until the threat is neutralized. The move fueled fears of Iranian retaliation and a broader regional conflict, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie. Market jitters were compounded by US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats, including an expansion of steel duties starting June 23 to cover steel-based appliances, doubling rates to 50% from the initial 25% in March. Investors now await progress on the US-China trade deal that is yet to be finalized. Looking ahead, attention turns to Australia’s May employment data due next week, which will provide fresh insight into the country’s economic health amid ongoing global uncertainties.