澳大利亚储备银行发出更多降息信号，贸易风险笼罩整个亚洲。周二亚洲时段，澳元小幅下跌，此前澳大利亚储备银行7月会议纪要证实了温和的倾向，尽管出人意料地保持了利率。董事会仍然倾向于进一步放松，争论的焦点是时机而不是方向。

RBA Signals More Cuts, Trade Risk Looms Across Asia.Aussie edged lower in Tuesday's Asian session after minutes from the RBA's July meeting confirmed a dovish bias, despite the surprise interest rate hold. The Board remains inclined to ease further, with the debate centered around timing rather than direction.

随着投资者消化澳大利亚储备银行最新会议纪要，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.29%左右，接近两周低点。7月份的会议纪要显示，董事会同意随着时间的推移进一步降息是合适的，但强调了时间和规模的重要性。大多数成员倾向于等待通胀放缓的确认，并指出在四次会议上三次降息与谨慎和渐进的做法不一致。尽管如此，市场目前预计8月份会议降息的可能性为91%，期货市场预测利率将在明年初触底至3.1%左右。这一转变是在就业报告弱于预期之后发生的，该报告预示着之前有弹性的劳动力市场可能出现裂缝。投资者现在期待着澳大利亚央行行长米歇尔·布洛克的演讲，以深入了解澳大利亚储备银行的政策路径，以及本周晚些时候公布的PMI数据，以进一步了解经济势头。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.29%, approaching a two-week low, as investors digested the latest RBA meeting minutes. The July meeting minutes showed the board agreed further rate cuts would be appropriate over time but stressed the importance of timing and scale. Most members preferred to wait for confirmation that inflation is slowing, noting that cutting rates three times in four meetings would not align with a cautious and gradual approach. Still, markets are now pricing in a 91% chance of a rate cut at the August meeting, with futures pointing to rates bottoming around 3.1% by early next year. The shift follows a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which signaled potential cracks in the previously resilient labor market. Investors now look ahead to a speech by Governor Michele Bullock for more insights into the RBA’s policy path, along with flash PMI readings later this week for further signals on economic momentum.

澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要：宽松政策的理由完好无损，但时机仍有争议。澳大利亚储备银行7月7日至8日的会议纪要显示，董事会普遍认为“随着时间的推移，利率将进一步下调”。然而，董事会对“进一步放松的适当时机和程度”存在分歧。

RBA minutes: Case for easing intact, but timing still debated.Minutes from the RBA's July 7–8 meeting reveal a Board broadly aligned on the view that there will be “some additional reduction in interest rates over time”. Yet, the board is divided on the “appropriate timing and extent of further easing”.

周二，澳元在连续两个交易日上涨后稳定在0.652美元左右，投资者消化了澳大利亚储备银行会议的最新纪要。央行在四次会议上考虑了第三次降息，但选择保持稳定，认为这与其谨慎的宽松战略不一致。大多数成员赞成在采取进一步行动之前等待通胀可持续恢复到目标水平的更具体迹象，而少数成员则支持由于全球和国内增长风险而削减通胀。尽管如此，市场现在认为8月12日政策会议降息的可能性为91%。与此同时，澳大利亚和美国之间的贸易关系仍在接受审查，因为澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞淡化了对未与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会晤的担忧。他强调，没有其他国家能与现任政府获得更有利的贸易条件，同时重申澳大利亚重视伙伴关系中的相互尊重。

The Australian dollar steadied around $0.652 on Tuesday, following two consecutive sessions of gains, as investors digested the latest minutes from the RBA's meeting. The central bank considered a third rate cut in four meetings but chose to hold steady, deeming it inconsistent with its cautious easing strategy. Most members favored waiting for more concrete signs that inflation was sustainably returning to target before taking further action, while a minority supported a cut due to global and domestic growth risks. Nevertheless, markets now see a 91% probability of a rate cut on August 12 policy meeting. Meanwhile, trade relations between Australia and the US remain under scrutiny, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese downplayed concerns over the absence of a meeting with US President Donald Trump. He emphasized that no other country has secured more favorable trade terms with the current administration, while reiterating that Australia values mutual respect in its partnerships.