澳元周二升至0.656美元左右，达到近三周来的最高水平，因美元走软提供支撑。周三美联储会议前，美元走弱，市场预计将降息25个基点，而对美中潜在贸易协议的乐观情绪也打压了避险需求。在澳大利亚，人们的注意力现在转向周三发布的第三季度通胀数据和9月份的月度CPI报告，这可能会进一步了解利率的走势。市场对降息的预期大幅下降，目前只考虑了15%的可能性，相较于60%大幅下降。此前，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克重申，尽管失业率上升幅度超过了澳大利亚储备银行的预期，但劳动力市场仍然“有点紧张”。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.656 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as a softer US dollar provided support. The greenback weakened ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with markets pricing in a 25 bps rate cut, while optimism over a potential US-China trade deal also weighed on safe-haven demand. In Australia, attention now turns to Wednesday’s release of Q3 inflation data and the September monthly CPI report, which could offer further insight into the trajectory of interest rates. Market expectations for a rate cut have dropped sharply, with only a 15% probability currently priced in, down significantly from 60% after RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the labor market remains “a little tight,” despite unemployment rising more than the RBA had projected.

澳元上涨，因布洛克言论后澳大利亚储备银行降息押注减少。澳元上涨，因布洛克言论后澳大利亚储备银行降息押注减少

Australian Dollar gains as RBA rate cut bets decrease following Bullock's remarks.Australian Dollar gains as RBA rate cut bets decrease following Bullock's remarks

澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克警告称，全球市场乐观情绪的突然逆转可能会引发金融不稳定，并加速降息。周一在悉尼举行的澳大利亚商业经济学家年度活动上，她表示，尽管存在经济和地缘政治风险，投资者似乎过于自满。布洛克说：“人们在想：好吧，你知道，这一切最终会非常糟糕吗？”他质疑“为什么信贷息差真的很低，风险溢价真的很小。”关于澳大利亚的失业率，布洛克指出，尽管9月份失业率上升到4.5%，但劳动力市场仍然“紧张”

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock cautioned that a sudden reversal in global market optimism could trigger financial instability and hasten interest rate cuts. Speaking at the Australian Business Economists annual event in Sydney on Monday, she said investors seemed overly complacent despite economic and geopolitical risks. “People are thinking: well, you know, could it all end up very badly,” Bullock said, questioning “why credit spreads are really low, the risk premiums are really low.” Regarding Australia's unemployment, Bullock noted that despite the rise to 4.5% in September, the labour market remained “tight.”

标准普尔/澳大利亚证券交易所200指数周二下跌0.4%，至9018点，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，因为投资者降低了下周降息的预期。市场目前预计降息的可能性仅为15%，远低于60%。此前，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克重申了该行的观点，即尽管最近失业率上升幅度超过了澳大利亚储备银行的预测，但劳动力市场仍然“有点紧张”。投资者现在将注意力转向周三公布的第三季度通胀数据和9月份月度CPI指标，以进一步了解利率前景。由于美中贸易紧张局势的缓解抑制了对避险资产的需求，黄金行业下跌5.4%，至一个多月来的最低水平。纽蒙特公司股价下跌5.7%，北方之星资源公司股价暴跌4%，进化矿业公司股价下跌3.8%。相比之下，主要银行支持该指数，澳大利亚国民银行上涨2.5%，西太平洋银行上涨1.9%，联邦银行上涨1.8%，澳新银行上涨1.4%。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 9,018 on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as investors scaled back expectations of an interest rate cut next week. Markets are now pricing in just a 15% chance of a rate reduction, down sharply from 60% after RBA Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed the bank’s view that the labor market remains “a little tight,” despite unemployment recently rising more than the RBA had forecast. Investors now turn their attention to Wednesday’s release of Q3 inflation data and the September Monthly CPI indicator for further clues on the outlook for interest rates. The gold sector slumped 5.4% to its lowest level in over a month, as easing US-China trade tensions dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Newmont Corporation sank 5.7%, Northern Star Resources plunged 4%, and Evolution Mining dropped 3.8%. In contrast, major banks supported the index, with National Australia Bank up 2.5%, Westpac rising 1.9%, Commonwealth Bank up 1.8%, and ANZ adding 1.4%.