4小时MACD 外汇策略来源： 作者： 发布时间：2007-12-16 点击次数： 50 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy 4小时MACD 外汇策略 Welcome to the 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy. This strategy is aimed at simplicity as well as high probability trades. I have been in the equity market for almost ten years now and in the forex market for two years. I learned very early that forex trading is not for the shaky ones. One must have a tested and definite trading strategy as well as well organized discipline to follow the strategy and execute the plan as to the letter. One must be exact and precise. 欢迎学习4小时MACD 外汇策略。这个策略是以简单和高概率交易为目标。我现在已经在投资市场待过差不多10年了，在外汇市场也已经有两年了。我很早就知道外汇交易不适合经常轻易动摇的人。我们必须油一个经得起测试及验证的交易策略及具有计划有纪律的按策略交易并执行本文上的计划。我们必须要严格与准确。 Therefore I paper traded for almost two years and read everything I could lay my hands on. I bought books and courses. I attend a 5 day live web seminar. All this did not help me at all as it did not fit my style of personality and I just did not seem to connect with all this different strategies. Over two years of watching the graphs with different indicators, moving averages etc. I started to get a feeling for the movement and motion of the market especially the EurUsd around certain moving averages. 因此，我进行了差不多两年的模拟交易并把自己能读的都读了，我才敢下手写这篇文章。我买了书和教材。我参加了5天的网络在线研讨。因为它并不符合我个人的性格，而我未能将这些不同的策略联系起来，所以，所有的这些对我一点用都没有。我看了超过两年的带有各种指标，移动平均线等的图表，才开始大致能通过移动平均线来感受到市场，非凡是欧元/美元的运行及波动。【】 It wasn’t till late last year that I discover a setting with the MACD that gives easy to read signals on a regular basis on a 4 hour timeframe. I like the 4 hour timeframe as one are not glued to the screen full time. 去年的不久前我发现macd的一项设置可以让我更好的有一个基础规则去解读h4图表上的信号。我喜欢单一的看h4周期上的图表而不用看完其他周期的图表。 If you look at FIG 1 below you will see that there were 14 signals over a period of 5 weeks. Within that period of FIG 1 the signals given were pretty good. There are times when some signals does not produce positive results. I then had to work on a filter system to only let me take the best ones. I found that the MACD when moving in a certain way produces a 95% accuracy. I will show you later how the high probability trades look like. 你可以从下面的FIG 1发现5周内出现14个信号，在FIG 1里给出的信号十分好。但有时候这些信号也会出现失灵。因此我得做一个过滤系统能够让我可以捕捉最好的信号。我发现MACD以一定方式运行的时候，它有95%的准确度。下面我将介绍这个高概率交易是怎样的。 In FIG 1 the signals are shown and FIG 2 shows that an entry is made after the 4 hour bar has closed and at the opening of the next bar. 在FIG 1里展示了这些信号，FIG 2则说明在4H棒子形成后的第二个棒子开盘时介入。 In FIG 3 another 19 deals were shown of which the last one was not finished yet so out of a total of 18 trades 5 were wrong and 13 were right. 在FIG 3里是暂时了另外19笔交易，其中一笔交易未完成外，而18笔交易中得到一个5笔交易失败，13笔交易正确的结果。As it is a 4 hour strategy it means sometimes setting the alarm clock to catch an entry in the early morning hours. What makes it nice is that one will know after the close of a 4 hour bar whether the next 4 hour bar might close as a signal by just following the MACD. Therefore one can set an alarm at that time. 因为它是4H策略，这就意味着可以设定一个警钟来捕捉在早上的介入点。这个策略的好处在于我们可以知道一个4小时的棒子结束后可以通过macd来判定接下来的棒子是否可做为一个信号进场。因此，我们可以那个时候设定一个警钟。 Have a look at FIG 1 to 3. Disclaimer: As trading in the Forex market is very risky, the reader if going beyond this point and applying the concepts and methods describing in this document do so on his or her own will and risk. The writer and or anyone involved in the compiling of this document will not be held responsible for any losses incurred by using the methods described in this document as no money management nor stoploss levels are discussed as it vary from trader to trader according to there own risk and capital profiles. 看一下FIG1，FIG2，FIG3 免责声明： 因为外汇市场风险十分大，假如没有完全理解这一点并应用这篇文章的观念和方法，风险自负。由于不同眼交易者的风险和资金现状各异，所以没有讨论资金治理和止损水平，因此作者及与编辑该文章有关的任何人对有应用该文章的方法导致的任何损失不负责任.This was just to see and get a feeling for the graphs. Let us start to set-up our charts. 看看下面的图表并感受一下，让我们了解一下图表的设置。 Moving Averages: 移动平均线： First of all are the moving Averages that we are going to use. 首先说我们将会用到的移动平均线。 1. 365 Exponential Moving Average (365EMA) 1.365指数移动平均线 2. 200 Simple Moving Average (200SMA) 200移动平均线 3. 89 Simple Moving Average (89SMA) 89移动平均线 4. 21 Exponential Moving Average (21EMA) 【】 21指数移动平均线 5. 8 Exponential Moving Average (8EMA) 8指数移动平均线 MACD: MACD settings at MACD设置是：快EMA5.慢EMA13和MACD EMA 1 1. Fast EMA 5 2. Slow EMA 13 3. MACD EMA 1 Horizontal Lines: 水平线： Three sets of horizontal lines above and below zero should be drawn on the MACD window at levels as well as one on zero 在MACD的窗口应该画出来3条水平线，一条在0下，一条在0上另一条在0轴上。1. Level 0.0015 2. Level 0.0030 3. Level 0.0045 4. Level –0.0015 5. Level –0.0030 6. Level –0.0045 Your Graph should look like this: (Choose your own colour and styles) 你的图表应该像这样：（选择你自己的颜色和风格）The MACD moves in certain patterns that when recognized can be very profitable trades. Let me show you the very important ones first. By not following every signal but only the ones that gives high probability trades through certain MACD patterns serves as a filter. The ones not familiar are not taken. This is the filter. 当MACD按照一定可靠的模式运行时会是很有机会盈利的交易。先让我告诉你重点。不要遵循每一个信号，只交易那些通过那些可靠的macd模式给出的概率高的交易信号，把这做为一个过滤器。信号不相似的信号不要。注重，这就是过滤器。This pattern comes very regular especially A and D as the MACD has moved beyond the 0.0045 level and are due for a correction and or trend reversal. B and C are trend continuing patterns and are entered in the direction of the trend. Red circles indicates entry signal and entry is made on the opening of the next bar. 这个模式是很规则的，非凡是A，D，而MACD0.0045以外的水平可以作为修正或者趋势反转。B，C倾向于模式的趋势延续及开始顺着趋势的方向进行。红圈即是进场信号，而进场需在第二根棒子的开盘。The head and shoulder is another definite. 头肩形态是另一个明确的信号。Double top and bottom does not need any introduction as it speaks in any timeframe. 双头和双底并不需要任何介绍因为它在任何周期都存在。When the MACD comes down towards the Zero line and turn back up just above the Zero line it is normally a trend continuing and should be taken and are normally a strong move. 当MACD向0轴方向走并且在到达0轴前继续向上走，这通常是趋势的延续，这样的信号我们要把握住，也通常也是强势的运动。Round tops and bottoms are for sure. Just be careful when within the first zone 0.0000 to 0.0015 above or below the zero. I like the rounding to be formed over at least 5 bars. 圆顶及圆底无须置疑。只是要留意第一个区域的0.0000-0.0015是在0轴之上还是之下。我喜欢这个圆至少有5根棒子形成。 this was a difficult month (Jan 2007)up to now but already 190 Pips up and a great move is coming as the price is within a range for almost 8 days. Lets see if that will happen. 07年2月是至今为止困难的一个月，但是也已经有190点上涨而因为盘整了差不多8天，大行情也将出现。让我们看看这种情况是否会发生。 Up to now I have only concentrated to give the signal on the MACD window so that you will be able to recognize it. It is easy to see the formation after it has formed. It takes a bit of practice to recognize it while it is forming. Lets look at a couple just to see how they look when the trade is entered. 至今为止，为了能够让你识别出信号，我只集中给出MACD窗口的这些信号。假如它形成了，你就很轻易看到它的形成过程。我们需要一些练习来识别这些信号的形成。我们看几个例子它在怎样的情况下我们可以进行交易。Let us look at the graph above. See how price levels play a roll in the support and resistance of the price movement. Say we entered the trade at Entry above. Our first profit target will be around our fast moving averages (8EMA and 21EMA). Our second profit target will be around the slow moving averages(89SMA and365EMA). Our third profit target will be at price level 1.2100 etc etc etc. 看上面的图表，看价格水平在价格运动中支撑阻力位的是怎样起作用的。如上，我们按进场信号交易，我们第一盈利目标将在快移动平均线（8，12）四周。第二盈利目标在慢移动平均线（89，365）四周。第三盈利目标将会在1.2100水平等等。 This is how you plan your trade in advance to take partial profits till you complete the trade. Should there be a moving average or price level nearby and below your entry level you must take note that the price might go and test them. So your stoploss must be aware of that. 这就是如何计划你的交易，从进一步获取部分利润直至你完成这笔交易。那里应该有一根均线或者价格水平四周，或者在你的进场价下方是否有一个可能将被到达或测试的位置你必须留意呢？所以，你的做止损的时候必须理解这些。 Again I ask you to study the movement of the price around the moving averages. When the price are above the 89SMA the trend is normally up and visa versa. After the price crosses the 89SMA it tends to pullback to the 21EMA before it carry on its direction if it is a trend direction change otherwise it tend to test the 89SMA again and then it runs over and across the 89SMA till it finds direction and then it pulls back to the 21EMA before proceeding on its path. 我再次让你研究在移动平均线四周的价格运动，当价格在89SMA以上时，趋势是通常 上涨的，相反在89SMA以下时价格通常会下跌。在价格和89SMA 交叉之后，它通常会回撤到21sma之后才继续它的原来的方向。假如趋势改变的话，它就会去再度试探89SMA并且突破89SMA直到确认方向，然后在轨道运行之前再次回撤21EMA。Here are a live trade I did for someone in explaining how I trade. This is actual e-mails that I did send. 25 January 2007 21:00 (GMT 2) 下面是解释我怎样为某人做的一笔实况交易。这是我确实的发出去的e-mail。25 January 2007 21:00 (GMT 2) Hi I took it with 30 pip stoploss and hope I can add to the Gbp one earlier this week. Greetings 我做了30点止损，希望我可以在这周早点的增加gbp。祝贺.The MACD pulled back to the Zero line and then closes lower which indicate a down move. MACD拉回到0轴线然后收盘更低，这暗示一波下跌 “Got entry at 1.2955 and has set stoploss at breakeven at 1.2955 when price did hit 1.2935. I am scared for a false breakout below support but now the price can turnaround as I have a free ride.” 在1.2955进场，当价格触击1.2935时，把止损设置在平衡点1.2955。我担心下支撑的假突破，但是现在价格正向我想的那样轻松的反转了。 “Took 50% profit at 1.2920 and set other half stoploss at 1.2935” 在1.2920平半仓，并且在1.2935设另外半仓的止损。 “Hi Amazing how it found support with Fibonacci. I wanted to do this trade with you as it developed so that you can see how I go about. I just had a feeling that the price is not going to go down to 1.2900 straight away so I applied fibonacci as there was no other indicator between the entry price and 1.2900. One has to listen to that little voice inside as well. I was stopped out on the other have at 1.2935 so the total gain was 35 pips on 50% and 20 pips on the other 50% for a total of 27.5 pips on full lot. Not bad for an hour work. 你会惊奇斐波纳契数列如何提供支撑的。我想在行情继续发展时进行这个交易以便让你明白我如何操作的。我只是感觉价格不会直线下跌到1.2900，所以我用斐波纳契数测量进场价至1。2900而不必使用其他指标。这也可以从里面知晓一些很细微的变化。我在1.2935出掉其他仓位，因此总的收益是一半是35点一半是20点，总盈利是27.5点。 这小时的操作还是不赖的。 This trade however was a bit risky as it was a breakout trade after ten days consolidation testing a trendline angling upwards. One has to evaluate the risk not only in terms of pips but also in terms of strategy and chart pattern. After a breakout the price very often turns back to test the breakout level and then that level becomes either support or resistance in this case it becomes Eur resistance. 这个交易无论怎么说还是有点风险的，因为它突破之后经过十天的巩固测试趋势线之后盘升。要衡量风险，不但表现在可盈利的点数，还表现在对策略及蜡烛形态把握。突破后，价格往往要回测突破位置并且该位置可以是支撑也可以是阻力，既然这样，那么它就是eur的阻力。Stoploss have to be inside the breakout otherwise it can be triggered and then sometimes it can be very big before entry signal is given by the MACD. 止损点必须在突破价格以内，否则在MACD给出进入信号之前，它会触发，有时止损也要设置得非常大. Here is what I normally do when the MACD shows a signal but the stoploss are to big in relation to my capital or what I am comfortable with. I enter the trade in three stages with my stoploss set at the same level. 这是当macd给出信号而相对我的资金，所做的止损十分大时我通常的做法或我满足的做法。我分3步进场，止损也设置在相同的水平。I stopped counting the pips for the April 2006 testing as it completely convinced me of the success of this method. I randomly tested it using previous years and the results were amazing. Average of 300 pips per month and then I only trade the trades that gives signals at these times 17:00, 21:00 and 01:00 (GMT 2). It gives between 8-10 deals per month using the mentioned timeframes.. (I use Metatrader and data supply by MIG.) 我停止了计算2006年4月测试所得的点数，因为它已经完全让我相信这个方法是成功的。我在前些年随便的测试该方法的使用，而所得的结果让人惊奇。每月平均300点盈利，我交易那些在17:00, 21:00 和01:00 (GMT 2)出现的交易信号。利用这个方法，它每月给出8－10笔交易信号。（我用mt并且由MIG提供数据） If you use patterns in the MACD that occur regular that gives results and use them every time they occur you will most definitely make money. 假如你用了规则的给出信号的MACD模式，并且每次出现信号的时候便交易，你绝大多数明确的是在赚钱的。 I haven’t discuss nor used trendlines so far in this document and when you add them it will most definitely helps you in defining your exit levels. The entry level are determine by the MACD but the exit or profit levels is determine by support and resistance levels. I use the moving averages as described earlier as well as Fibonacci levels and then most definitely trendlines and price levels. I normally take the daily graph and draw the trendlines according to it and then go to the 4 hour graph. I makethem nice and thick so that I can see them. Then I draw the different price levels such as 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 etc. It is amazing to see how the price find support and or resistance at these levels. I hope that this document will help you on your way to financial independents. 到目前为止在本文中我并没有讨论不用趋势线，而且假如添加他们的话会帮助你更好的确认出场点。进场点有MACD给出而出场点或者盈利水平则有支撑和阻力水平决定。我用前面提到的移动平均线和Fibonacci然后还用一些明确的确实线和价格水平。我通常用日图并且按照它画趋势线，然后4H图。我把他们画的很漂亮跟粗，这样我能方便的看到他们。接着我会画出不同的价格水平像1.2900， 1.3000，1.3100等。在这些价位可以找到支撑和阻力。 我希望本问对你独立的金融之路有帮助。

Nice work, tks vm.

不用CDMA，只用了均线，RSI、布林线，K线。

解释一下：中间的图都打不开，无法复制，请见谅！

坛子里面相当一部分人应该知道这个系统吧

一个图都没 来自：韬客外汇 Android客户端

外汇交易不适合经常轻易动摇的人。我们必须油一个经得起测试及验证的交易策略及具有计划有纪律的按策略交易并执行本文上的计划。我们必须要严格与准确。