是否会像周六所判断的那样，欧元将出现连续三周的上涨走势？我们只要放平常心，边走边看，即使目前来说是正确的。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-2-17 11:23 编辑 ]2-12-2011 8-02-32 PM.gif

Federal Reserve policy makers took a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy last month while maintaining their dissatisfaction with job growth as they pressed forward with an expansion of record monetary stimulus, minutes of last month’s policy meeting released yesterday showed. Even with soaring commodity costs, the Fed remains concerned that consumer inflation is below its long-range annual target of 1.6 percent to 2 percent. “Despite further increases in commodity prices, measures of underlying inflation remained subdued and longer-run inflation expectations were stable,” the minutes said.

U.S. stocks have risen three straight days, sending the S&P 500 to a 32-month high, as improving corporate earnings and manufacturing data overshadowed higher-than-forecast growth in consumer prices. European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the bank may need to raise interest rates as global inflation pressures mount. “As the economy gradually recovers and global inflationary pressures arise, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy has to be monitored and, if needed, corrected,” Bini Smaghi said in an interview with daily newsletter Bloomberg Brief: Economics. [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-2-19 13:28 编辑 ]

The dollar fell against the euro for the first week in almost a month as the Federal Reserve signaled its dissatisfaction with job growth, bolstering speculation it will be slow to increase interest rates. The greenback dropped against most of its major peers as lower-than-forecast retail sales and a rise in jobless claims damped demand. The Swiss franc surged as investors sought safety amid Middle East turmoil, while the pound rose against the dollar and euro on speculation the Bank of England will raise interest rates. The U.S. economy grew faster in the last quarter of 2010 than first estimated, data next week may show.美指日线图2-19-2011.gif

欧元在最后一刻发飙，真的被您说中了~~~

Oil rose to the highest since September 2008 and gold rallied for a sixth day surpassing $1,400 an ounce as tension in the Middle East escalated. Stocks fell the most in a month as Eni SpA led companies with operations in Libya lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 1.3 percent, with Eni sinking the most since July 2009. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.9 percent. 地缘政治局势的紧张令油价飙升，避险情绪升温令股市下跌，金价上涨。 目前避险情绪占据了主导地位，昨日避险资产价格上涨，包括欧债国国债，表明了市场的关注重点集中在地缘政治的紧张局势上，短期美元受避险买盘的推动下有可能走高。中长期来看，由于能源价格的上涨最终会传导到货币政策或者有关货币政策改变的预期，欧洲、英国通胀水平高出目标水平，主要受到商品与能源价格上涨的影响，地缘政治问题让通胀水平可能进一步升高，委员会内部仍存在意见分歧，使得升息的预期更进一步。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-2-22 08:47 编辑 ]

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 2 percent. The Markit iTraxx Japan index advanced three basis points to 84.5 basis points, according to Citigroup Inc. prices after Moody’s changed the nation’s credit-rating outlook to negative from stable, citing the risk that the government won’t do enough to its tackle debt burden. The rating stands at Aa2. The cost of protecting New Zealand sovereign bonds from default jumped the most in almost three months after a 6.3 magnitude temblor hit the city of Christchurch. Credit-default swaps gained 5 basis points to 66 basis points, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. prices.

Loyalists of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sought to crush dissent in the capital, Tripoli, as his opponents tightened control of eastern cities, with Barclays Capital estimating that about 1 million barrels of daily production may have been shut. A $20 increase in oil prices may cut global gross domestic product growth estimates by 1 percent, Societe Generale said.

Ireland's main opposition party, Fine Gael, won a clear victory in Friday's election, setting Dublin on course for a showdown with the European Union over the terms of its

U.S. officials will meet with their foreign counterparts in Geneva today to discuss the fate of Libya, including measures to pressure Muammar Qaddafi out of power while building ties to opposition leaders. As opposition groups begin planning an interim government, the U.S. has begun contacting anti-Qaddafi forces who control the eastern part of Libya and are making gains in the west.

美指四小时图显示前期构筑的支撑线在周五美指探底过程中起到了支撑的作用，是否再次出现小幅震荡？从周五公布的数据来看，英国第四季度GDP萎缩幅度超出预期，德国CPI数据低于预期，对英国、欧洲加息是有影响的，经济增长的疲软将延迟升息的步伐。而此前央行多名官员发表强硬言论令升息预期扩大，欧元、英镑因此受到支撑而强劲上涨。今天要公布欧洲的CPI数据，显得至关重要，欧元区1月份调和消费者物价指数初值2.5%，本次公布终值预期2.4%。此外，美国公布1月PEC物价指数，周五已公布去年12月份的数据出现小幅增长。因此今天欧元仍有可能依附支撑线出现震荡。 根据波浪理论分析，周五美指的反弹可能是C浪的开端，但基本面仍然有压制因素。技术上，美指77附近的支撑位是大三角形延伸而来的，从周图观察美指的走势形成收缩三角形，三角边多次形成阻力支撑作用，因此可以认定三角边为多空的分水岭。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-2-28 12:15 编辑 ]美指4小时图2-28-2011.gif

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the “considerably brighter” economic outlook isn’t yet reason for the central bank to withdraw its record monetary stimulus. “We provided additional monetary policy stimulus via the asset purchase program in order to help ensure the recovery did regain momentum,” Dudley said today in a speech in New York. “A stronger recovery with more rapid progress toward our dual mandate objectives is what we have been seeking. This is welcome and not a reason to reverse course.”

The dollar struggled to regain its footing in Asia on Tuesday after a steep decline, while the euro held firm as investors bet the Federal Reserve will stick to its easing course even as the ECB talks of tightening. In the words of New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley: "We're still very far from achieving our dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability."This puts the Fed at odds with other major central banks, which are starting to worry about rising price pressure, and reinforces the view that the European Central Bank will probably hike rates before the Fed.

The common currency was further helped by calmer nerves after oil prices fell on expectations that increased production from Saudi Arabia can offset supply disruptions stemming from Libya's turmoil, and Wall Street ended firmer. Markets are keeping a close eye on the outcome of the ECB's policy meeting on Thursday, deemed as one of the most important of the year given a potent cocktail of new economic forecasts, crisis support withdrawal and the potential for tough talk on inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and is considered certain to keep rates at 4.75 percent for a fourth month. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has repeatedly said the current monetary policy setting is appropriate and that the central bank is ahead of the policy game. Benign inflation has also bought the central bank more time to sit tight. "The risk (for the Aussie) is likely to the upside if the central bank signals any concern about flood-related inflation. Key resistance holds at 1.0200," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note.

"In the household sector thus far, in contrast, there continues to be caution in spending and borrowing, and an increase in the saving rate. Asset values have generally been little changed over recent months and overall credit growth remains quite subdued, notwithstanding evidence of some greater willingness to lend. " 澳洲家庭支出与借贷表示谨慎，储蓄率上升也显示居民较以前更为谨慎，使得澳洲联储能够在更长的时间内暂停加息。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-3-1 11:08 编辑 ]HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATIO.gif

While global inflationary pressures are rising, inflation in Canada has been consistent with the Bank's expectations. Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the economy. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.

伯南克在参议院金融委员会做了半年度货币政策证词陈述，表达了美国经济不断出现改善的迹象并上调了今年经济增长和就业预期，同时全球商品价格的持续走高可能推高通胀水平，伯南克在本次陈述中也表示虽然目前的通胀预期依然很低，但美联储准备采取措施应对通胀。可以预计在众议院金融委员会的证词中也将保持同一论调，对美元有利。今天公布ADP就业数据以及周四发表的褐皮书经济报告也将进一步印证经济增长与就业市场的表现。昨晚众议院通过延长政府运作融资两周的法案，以及美财政部推迟对于美国债务水平将触及债务上限的预期日期，虽然相对整体的风险只是短期的延缓效果，但是市场对美国所面临政府停运以及债务水平触及上限的风险有所缓解。由于周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议，市场普遍预计欧洲央行将提前升息，相对美元利差扩大，对美元的上涨构成压制。因此今天轻仓做多美元，如取得一定浮盈后设置平保，以观察后市的发展。美指4小时图3-2-2011.gif

欧洲央行提前升息还多美圆？

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