注意：绿色支撑线所指示的支撑位77.88。

Oil fell more than 1 percent on Monday as ample U.S. inventories were seen on the rise and after Saudi Arabia's oil minister expressed concerns about the influence of speculators on prices. 技术上原油日布林线张口，指标表现一致，当前仍保持着下跌的态势，支撑位在85附近。

U.S. stocks rose, rebounding from last week’s drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as takeovers and share-buyback plans bolstered confidence in equities. The dollar erased earlier gains, while Russian equities tumbled after a suicide bombing at Moscow’s airport. The government plans to sell $99 billion of notes over three days this week as the Federal Reserve meets and President Barack Obama gives his State of the Union speech tomorrow. Producers of raw materials and technology companies helped lead gains in U.S. equities after Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. agreed to be purchased and Intel Corp. added $10 billion to its stock-buyback plan.

英镑的不利数据正逐步被消化，数据公布比预期好，英镑将会有反弹 ，升息的预期将强化英镑走强，如果数据不利，英镑可能继续小幅下挫。目前的趋势仍在，美指小时图只是小幅震荡，并非美元走强所导致的英镑下跌，所以仍须注意美指的方向。

C浪以终结三角形结束的概率比较大，从形态上还有一浪下跌，但不排除已经完成的可能性。所以做多欧元显得需要谨慎。美指4小时图1-25-2011.gif

评论一下我的英镑看法——我认为英镑现在，对，就是现在这几天开始，要么大涨，要么狂跌。大涨就是1000点，时间几个月；狂跌就是从此跌向对美圆的1算，时间大概3-4年。

谢谢与我分享你的观点。 我很难去判断数月或数年的行情，当然你这样说，自然有你的道理。我也不好评论。 目前美指4小时的楔形明显，如果向上突破，或许就是美指阶段性的上升波段，与前期的调整形成平台形走势，走出一段五浪，或者是联合形，再走出一波三浪上升。

欢迎大家来共同讨论行情。凡说出自己的观点，必须指明判断的理由。 我觉得必须认真地去思考行情，对于自己的判断有个明确的理由，即使错了，也能错得明白。

进来学习并支持~~~

谢谢支持。不妨也可以说说你的观点。

短线做空欧元，止损1.3730。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-1-26 20:47 编辑 ]

Stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 12,000, after new-home sales in the U.S. beat estimates and amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep stimulus measures in place. Egyptians clashed with police in Cairo and other cities, inspired by the revolt that toppled Tunisia’s president. The cost of insuring against a default by Egypt rose for a second day, climbing 9 basis points to 339, the highest since June 2009, according to credit-default swap prices from CMA. 欧元已暂时离场，获利20点。等待美指选择突破方向。

美国维持利率以及量化宽松规模不变，声明与前期论调一致，经济增长可持续，但是失业率高企，信贷紧缩，家庭财富缩水。较长期通胀预期仍旧维稳，但基础通胀水平已经趋于下行。美联储在依据法案寻求就业最大化与物价稳定的同时，必然需要通过增加货币供应量，进而降低实际利率来实现。年内升息的可能性降低。而欧洲通胀率较高，产生升息预期，从而导致欧美之间的利差预期，或导致美元再度下挫。这是后市所需要关注的影响因素。 技术面，之前发的美指4小时图仍然有效，目前按白色线方案运行，形态上还有一跌，绿色支撑线所指示的支撑位已下移至77.70。如果向上突破压力线，则意味着至少将出现反弹。

中午没看盘，回来时美指已经突破压力线了，介入欧元空单1.3681，止损设在1.3730，跟昨天一样。

欧元空单被止损了。亏损近五十点。 标普调降日本评级导致美指的突破，实际并未造成美指真实的突破。 原来的图还可以用，但是必须忽略消息的扰动效果。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-1-27 19:01 编辑 ]

美指小时图，形态上还有一跌，做多做空都要谨慎。美指的支撑位在77上方。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-1-28 00:07 编辑 ]1-27-2011 11-52-04 PM.gif

美指下跌或已终结，轻仓试空非美。 目前持欧元空单1.3739，已设平保。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-1-28 10:17 编辑 ]美指4小时图1-28-2011.gif

国家政府债务占GDP比重：general governments gross debt.gif

U.S. stocks fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average paring the longest weekly rally since 1995, as Ford Motor Co. and Amazon.com Inc. slumped, offsetting a report showing that American economic growth accelerated.The dollar gained against the euro amid concern protests in Egypt are intensifying as President imposes a curfew in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria. The Middle East nation’s dollar bonds sank, pushing yields to a record high. 今日亚洲早盘介入1.3739的欧元空单，晚上回来后发现被碰了平保，获利1点，而后再次介入欧元空单1.3696，设平保1.3680。 [ 本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2011-1-29 00:42 编辑 ]

Mubarak imposed the curfew, which state television said lasts from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. local time, after a day of clashes between police and protesters demanding the end of his presidency. The ruling party’s headquarters in Cairo is on fire, the Associated Press reported, citing state television. The demonstrations helped offset data showing that growth in U.S. gross domestic product accelerated in the fourth quarter.