一 初露疲态 1.LIBOR翻转,始于6月中旬/下图为LIBOR AUD1年期. 2.澳央行解惑: /以下摘录自澳央行 2008年8月发布 (1).In mid July, the Australian dollar reached a post-fl oat high against the US dollar of just over 98½ cents, boosted by the further rise in the terms of trade in Australia stemming from strong price increases for bulk commodity exports,including coking coal, thermal coal and iron ore. On a trade-weighted basis the dollar reached its highest level since February 1985 and is currently around 19 per cent above its long-run average. Since mid July the Australian dollar has depreciated as commodity prices have declined from their recent peaks and expectations for the future path of monetary policy in Australia have changed. (2).With the Australian dollar reaching historically high levels on a trade-weighted basis and against the US dollar in mid July, the Bank has continued to purchase foreign exchange since the last Statement.The Bank has made net foreign exchange purchases of around $620 million over this period,in line with the rate of increase over recent years, with net reserves increasing to around $36 billion. (3).The strength of the local currency has been refl ected in significant capital infl ows, particularly in debt and money market instruments. It is also evident in net long speculative positions in Australian dollar futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which have remained elevated since the previous Statement. 二 技术分析及一个月预测 1.总揽: 2.一周 3.日以内--1小时以下周期 三 初步结论 AUDUSD的巨跌为多种因素的作用,其中最重要的应该是预期的翻转,其中最主要的是对澳利率政策预期的转变.同时各种偶然性因素,比如飓风等自然灾害的应县也不容忽视.在该预期一旦形成,AUD似乎应该进入疲软的旅程.然而百足之虫死而不僵.毕竟对懊经济衰退预期虽有所增加,但是并未形成,因为其中夹杂了太多偶然因素,衰退二字,却不可妄言,况且还有更重要的因素--美国经济和美联储的货币手段. 注:以上耗时不多,仓促之作,尚待继续观察思辨.

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小板凳坐坐 那言下之意，看来澳美还有600点的下跌余地呀

两小时前澳美那波反弹力度能算强么？大约有一百多点左右。如果这波反弹能算得上是有意义的话，0.8773-0.8814的预期反弹位置是不是会被突破？如果被有效突破，从0.86开始的这波可不可以说是像样的反弹?

如果是个像样反弹的开始，大概反弹的位置是多少呢？0.9050 - 0.92 - 0.9350?

LZ的兄台奋战到很晚啊 你的第一个问题:如果冲破上沿,那么确实会向上看高一层. 我提到的象样反弹是指这波跌势结束后的的新一轮涨势,从澳的长周期来看的反弹.如果你的反弹含义和我一致,那么继续下面的. 第一个 现在突破上沿可向上看高一层,个人却不觉得他是象样反弹,因为预期的改变需要时间,不排除重镑消息的刺激,却不可预期. 第二个 至于象样反弹能到何处不敢轻易预测,因为个人觉得该轮反弹的到来需要时间,而距离时间越远,预测的精度就会越差,不是说不能预测.要预测需要更多的时间.不过兄台有兴趣,请贴上图以便交流.:)

我受够了澳元的高价，这会该好好的空死它了

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楼主:目标位到了,接着怎样看呢?真的愁云惨淡吗?

水平一般，没有找到根本

谢谢 根本何在 敬请赐教

澳元居然完全不去确认顶部 让人觉得很奇怪

回楼上的：确认过，只是你没有看到而已！ aud.jpg

美日的可能性 限于技术usdjpyDAILY分析.GIF