Charles H. Dow 是所谓西方推崇的道氏理论的奠基人，他的关于一个市场从牛市到熊市的全过程的六个阶段的划分，对我们理解市场所处于的阶段和市场的行为，可能将要发生什么事情，有一定的参考价值。 同时也好用来检查和对照自己， 作为一面镜子，帮助自己逐步提高。 全文是英文， 摘自Robert W. Colby, CMT 的 “The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators" 2nd, Ed. McGraw - Hill, pp226 - 228, 2003, ISBN0-07-012057-9, 我先打出来，以后， 有空时逐段翻译。 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ THERE ARE SIX PHASES OF THE FULL BULL THROUGH BEAR CYCLE: SKEPTICISM, GROWING RECOGNITION, ENTHUSIASM, DISBELIEF, SHOCK AND FEAR, AND DISGUST In a major Bull Market, the first phase is accumulation of stocks at bargain prices by the "smart money" (the most knowledgeable and experienced investors). Meanwhile, the mass mood toward the stock market ranges from disgust to general skepticism. Stocks are depressed, and may have been for a long time. Still, some investors know that the cycle always turns up, even while fundamental business conditions still appear grim. The smart money begins to bid for out-of-favor stocks, which are selling at temptingly low bargain prices. Transactional volume, which has been low, starts to improve on rallies reflecting the entrance into the market by these forward-looking, patient investors. The second Bull phase is known as the mark-up phase. Stock prices rise on increasing transactioanl volume. There is growing recognition that fundamental business conditions will improve. Stocks move up big. It is a very rewarding time to be in the market. The third Bull phase is marked by popular enthusiasm and speculation. Sentiment indicators are near record levels. Fundamentals now appear extremely positive. There even may be widespread talk of a "new era" of rapid economic growth and never-ending prosperity. Stories of speculations making millions in the market flood the media. Everybody is optimistic and is buying, so transactional volume is extremely heavy. Late in this third phase , however, volume starts to diminish on rallies, as greedy buyers shoot their wads and become fully invested, usually on margin. Also, the smart money has reminded itself that "no tree grows to the sky" and all good things must eventually come to an end. Consequently, those knowledgeable in vestors, who bought early at wholesale prices, stop buying. Moreover, they begin the distribution phase, parceling out their stocks at retail prices. Smart selling intensifies as the greedy but unsophisticated mob snaps up overvalued stocks at absurdly high prices. Late inthis game , tell-tale bearish technical cracks start toappear under the "obviously" bullish surface. Tchnical divergences in stocks and groups are caused by irrational buying of the wrong stocks by unsophisticatd players while the smart money liquidates the best stocks. Stocks churn and make little net progress. TO BE CONTINUED

这里是熊市转化到牛市的周期的六个阶段： 怀疑 增加认识 狂热 不相信 震撼和恐惧 厌恶 在一个成熟的牛市中，第一阶段表现为“聪明的资金”的交易筹码开始集中（聪明的资金指最有见识的、最有经验的投资者）。在这段时间里，针对交易市场的主流情绪各异，从厌恶到一般性的怀疑。市场很疲弱，而且可能持续了很长一段时间。但一些投资者仍然相信市场总会周期性地回暖，即使当时的基本面仍然严峻。“聪明资金”开始投资被市场遗忘的交易品种，这些品种暂时处在低价位。而前期一直低迷的成交量，也开始放大、堆积，反映着那些有远见的、耐心的投资者正在进入市场。 牛市的第二个阶段被认为是一个标志性的上升阶段。股票价格上升，并伴随着成交量的放大。市场逐渐认识到基本面将好转。股票显著上扬，这时进入市场会获得高回报。 普遍性的狂热和投机标志着牛市的第三阶段的到来。市场的情绪指数接近了记录水平。基本面看上去极度乐观，甚至有可能广为流传着关于经济高速增长的“新时期”和永无止尽的繁荣的言论。关于投机产生百万富翁的故事在媒体上泛滥。每个人都很乐观并且在买入，所以成交量极大。然而，在第三阶段的后期，正当贪心的买家如他们所愿地变成满仓，通常是极度地满仓时，成交量开始萎缩了。而且，“聪明资金”已经提醒自己：“没有一棵树能长到天上”，而且所有的好事情都会有一个终点。结果，在早些时间以“批发价”买入股票的那些有见地的投资者停止了继续购买。并且，他们开始进入了“派发”阶段，小批小批地以“零售价”卖出。 这种聪明的出售很红火，当那些贪婪而单纯的狂热者们猛烈地将被高估的股票继续推高到一个荒谬的价格时。在这场游戏的尾声，暗示着转熊的技术指标开始在“显然”很牛的表面下撕开裂缝。由于单纯的玩家无理性地购买错误的股票而与此同时“聪明资金”却清算最好的股票，股市的技术指标产生分歧，股票走势出现分化。整个市场震荡而进行着收网的过程。

The first Bear Market phase is marked by clear and widespread technical deterioration, even while almost everybody is still feeling extremely bullish. But when everyone who ever is going to buy has already bought, there is only one direction for prices to go --- down. When buying power is used up, there is insufficient demand to absorb the accelarating distribution of stocks by the smart money at current prices, so prices have to move lower. An ever increasing number of stocks already have stalled out and formed potentially bearish chart patterns. But even as stocks break cretical chart support levels, this clear bearish technical evidence is widely ignored by the uninformed masses. After all, fundamental business conditions are still rosy, and "buy the dips" is still the advice of the brokers and the dealers and their paid spokesmen in the media. The public hopes and believes that the "conventional wisdom" of all the highly compensated Wall Street analysts, strategists and economists is right. Besides, the public has been told that they bought for the long term, and over the long term stock prices always go up. So, stock price declines are met with general disbelief. The public would buy more, if only they were not already fully margined. But they are. So they can't.

即使在人人都到市场气氛“牛气冲天”的时候，熊市的初始阶段就已经开始酝酿了，在图形上也已经显示出了很多明确的技术征候。然而，一旦打算购买的人们都已然进场，汇率却开始只向一个方向前进----向下。当多方力量出尽，即在当前价位，再也没有可用资金作为购入作多的需求时，汇价就只能向下了。一度上涨的股金开始失去上冲势头，构成了熊市的雏形。但是，即使汇价在跌破关键支撑位后，显示熊市已经开始的明确技术指标，却仍为众多无知的大众熟视无睹。毕竟，过热的市场仍有余温尚存，更何况，“逢低买入”，乃是众多经纪人、交易员和媒体的言论的共识。公众寄希望并相信那些华尔街的分析师、经济战略研究员和经济师达成的“共识”不会有错。甚至于，公众被铺天盖地的言论打动后，仍自信地认为：自己投入的资金，从长远来看，一定会升值。因而，汇价在下跌，人们却仍不为所动。公众甚至认为，只要尚未满仓，就会不遗余力地坚持买下去。但是，只要他们是这样做的，就很难再解套了。

The second Bear phase is marked by a sudden mood change, from optimism and hope to shock and fear. One day, the public wakes up and sees, much to its surprise, that "the emperor has no clothes." Actual fundamental business conditions are not panning out to be as positive as previously hoped. In fact, there may be a little problem. The smart money is long gone, and there is no one left to buy when the public wants out. Stock prices drop steeply in a vacuum. Fear quickly replaces greed. Repeated waves of panic may sweep the market. Transactional volume swells as the unsophisticated investor screams, "Get me out at any price!" Sharp professional traders are willing to bid way down in price for stocks when prices drop too fast. The best that can be expected, however, is a dead-cat bounce that recovers only a fraction of the steep loss. The third Bear phase is marked by discouraged selling and, finally, total disgust to ward stocks. Fundamentals clearly have deteriorated and the outlook is bleak. Downward price movement continues but the negative rate of change eventually begins to slow as potential sellers liquidate holdings at distress prices. Even the best stocks, which initially resist the downtrend, succumb to the persistence of the Bear. Transactional volume, which was high in the panic phase, starts to diminish on price declines as liquidation runs its course. Eventually, after everyone who is capable of selling has sold already, the Bear Market is exhausted. The discouraged public lament is, "never again." After stocks are totall sold out, the stage is then set fo the cycle to begin again. When everyone who ever is going to sell has already sold, there is only one direction for prices to go ---- up. These phases are no secret. They have been written about by Dow and its successors for more than a century. These phases repeat endlessly, over and over again. Still, teh public never learns. It is all too easy, it is merely human nature, to get caught up in the mass mood of the moment, lose all perspective and run with the emotions of the crowd. If you do not learn how to recognize the technical indications, and if you are not disciplined, the easiest thing in the world to do is to allow your self to be pulled along by the mass mood, the "group think." But that is the way to be wrong at the critical turning points, t obuy at tops and sell at bottoms, and to consistently underperform the market. To make money and out perform the market, we need to do the opposite. The Dow Theory tells us how.

熊市的第二个阶段以市场情绪的突然变化为标志，市场从乐观和憧憬，转而震惊和恐惧。有一天，公众苏醒了，而且他们很吃惊地发现：“皇帝原来没有穿衣服！” 而事实上的经济基本面并没有展现出和早些时候预计的那样乐观，实际上可能存在一定的问题。“聪明资金”早已离场，而且没有人留下来购买公众手中的筹码。股票价格像在真空器里一样急速下滑。恐惧很快代替了贪婪，恐慌盘反复地席卷整个市场。随着单纯的投资者的尖叫：“让我离场，我不在乎价格！”成交量开始膨胀。当价格下滑太快时，机灵的职业交易员们有意识地去博下降过程中的反弹。然而，我们的最大希望就是出现一次回光返照——整个急速下跌过程中的一个小插曲。 当公众气馁的卖出他们手中的筹码时，当市场最终被彻底的厌恶情绪笼罩时，意味着熊市的第三阶段开始了。经济基本面显著恶化，而且前景黯淡。股票价格持续下滑，但由于潜在的卖家清算他们在“地价”的持仓，这种下跌的趋势最终减慢了。即使前期比较抗跌的优质股票，最终也在持续的熊市中屈服了。在恐慌阶段中很大的成交量，开始在价格的下跌过程中萎缩，此时是一个清算过程。最终，当每个人把能卖的都卖了，熊市也终于耗尽了能量。气馁的公众叹息着：“下次再不这样了！” 当所有的股票都被卖了，新一轮循环的序幕就拉开了。当所有想卖的人都卖了，现在价格就只有一个方向可以走了——上升。 这些过程不是秘密。Dow和他的后继者们已经写出它们有一个多世纪了。这些过程永无止境地重复，一次又一次。但是公众仍然不吸取教训。这很简单，仅仅是出于人类的天性——跟随当时的主流情绪，丢失了所有的个人判断。如果你没有学会识别技术指标，如果你没有经过训练，这个世界上最简单的事情就是让你自己从主流情绪，群体思维中解脱出来。因为这是一个南辕北辙的思路——在高点买入，在低点卖出，而且一直往市场给你准备的圈套中钻。为了赚钱，为了跳出市场的圈套，我们需要反向操作。Dow的理论告诉了我们应该怎样做。

中文翻译是由zargrant 和北方一狼帮忙完成的。在此对他们表示感谢。