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Federal Reserve Keeps Rate at 5.25% for Second Month By Craig Torres The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent for a second month as slowing growth and a slide in oil prices suggest lower inflation in coming quarters. ``Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting in Washington. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke anticipates the economy, buffeted by a housing slump, will cool enough to ease inflation after 17 rate increases in the two years to June. He must balance inflation that's still above his comfort zone with the concerns of some officials that tighter credit will push up unemployment and reduce spending. The Fed dropped its description of the housing slowdown as ``gradual,'' a possible sign that residential real estate, where industry groups warn of price declines, is growing in importance as policy makers consider their next move. ``Moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market,'' the Fed said. Few other changes were made to the statement, compared with the language used in August. The FOMC's decision left the target for the overnight lending rate between banks at the highest level since March 2001. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, dissented for a second consecutive meeting in favor of a rate increase. Dangers Remain The Fed continued to signal vigilance on inflation, a sign it isn't yet satisfied with pace of price increases. ``The committee judges that some inflation risks remain,'' the statement added. ``The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.'' Treasury notes pared gains after the decision, as did stocks. The dollar was little changed. ``They spelled out reasons why inflation will moderate, and the market is taking that as a sign that they may be on hold for perhaps a bit longer than previously anticipated,'' said American Century Investments fund manager Jeremy Fletcher, who manages $1.8 billion of Treasury inflation-protected securities in Mountain View, California. ``Having a dissent out there allows the Fed in general to show they are still concerned about inflation.'' Impact of Oil Crude oil is down about 20 percent since the Fed last met and has wiped out all the gains for the year, strengthening the case for holding rates steady. In addition to raising costs for manufacturers, oil's surge to a record in July hurt confidence among consumers, whose spending accounts for more than two thirds of gross domestic product. ``The Fed is in a holding pattern here,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Securities in Chicago and a former Fed economist. ``With inflation above their target and uncertainty about how large the slowdown will be, they have no choice but to stay with a bias toward tightening. This is typical Fed behavior.'' All 110 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected today's decision. Traders pegged the likelihood that rates will be unchanged for the rest of the year at 97 percent, according to the price of futures tied to the fed funds rate on the Chicago Board of Trade this morning. Economic reports are mixed. Housing starts fell 6 percent last month to a three-year low, and a measure of wholesale prices fell, according to government figures yesterday. A report on Sept. 15 showed consumer prices rising at half the pace of the previous month in August. Still, annual consumer inflation rates are above levels several policy makers consider desirable. `Sitting on Hold' ``The Fed is locked in here for the next several meetings,'' said Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former economist at the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs. ``The consumer will remain resilient, and if that is the case, the economy can weather this downturn in housing activity and we'll actually see growth recover next year, and the Fed will be left sitting on hold.'' Economists, including the Fed's staff, are trying to assess how lower oil prices, a faltering housing market, a tight labor market and rising wages play into their forecast that slowing growth will cool price pressures. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in August from 4.8 percent in July. The Fed staff predicted in August that the economy will grow below its potential for the next six quarters. The Fed's benchmark rate is the highest in the Group of Seven major industrial nations. The Bank of Canada's rate stands at 4.25 percent, and the base lending rate in the United Kingdom is 4.75 percent. The European Central Bank's refinancing rate is 3 percent, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Sept. 9 it will show ``strong vigilance'' against inflation. The Bank of Japan raised its key rate for the first time since 2000 in July, to 0.25 percent from near zero.

美联储20日决定维持5.25%的基准利率不变经济学家对此看法不一 美国联邦储备委员会20日做出了维持利率不变的决定，这引起了华尔街对其未来利率政策走向的争论。有经济学家相信美联储将在06年底之前将一直保持5.25%的利率水平不变，但包括银行机构在内的组织和经济学家认为有必要继续实行紧缩的货币政策，他们预期美联储年内将会再次作出加息决定。 综合外电9月20日报道，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)9月会议引发了华尔街对美联储未来货币政策走向的争论。 按美联储当前姿态，大多数经济学家继续相信，美联储已完成了需要完成的一切，所以在06年底之前将保持当前5.25%的基准利不变。但有少数银行机构出于对通货膨胀的担心，认为有必要继续实行紧缩的货币政策，他们相信美联储将会再次提高基准贷款利率，且很有可能于其10月会议作出如此加息决定。 此种争论在联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC）会议之前就已开始，此次会议该委员会第二次决定维持利率不变。 里士满联邦储备银行（Richmond Fed）行长拉克尔（Jeffrey Lacker）连续第二次反对维持利率水平不变，他认为应该加息25个基点。 FOMC的声明再次指出，鉴于能源价格回落、通货膨胀预期得到控制以及过去两年的连续加息，预计随著时间的推移，通货膨胀可能趋于温和。 此次声明还指出，美国经济增速的减缓部分原因是由于住房行业增速的减慢。 观察家分析指出，此次FOMC声明很大程度上显示出了美联储本身目前也不清楚其下一步利率政策将怎么走，这对市场参与者分辨美联储利率政策轨迹帮助甚少。 Advisors Financial Center首席经济学家利伯曼（Charles Lieberman）表示，FOMC的此次会议决定并非是为了获得更多时间以及更多数据以决定下一步政策走向，如果FOMC意识到下步策略，这将在其会后声明中很清楚的表达出来，至少将表现在其行动上。 雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）首席经济学家哈瑞斯（Ethan Harris）表示美联储将于10月会议上再次加息，但他也承认此预期某种程度上有点悲观。哈瑞斯引用美联储声明中的话称，FOMC官员在声明中指出，将关注经济数据，若通胀再次上升，美联储将采取行动。 目前还不清楚美联储的会后声明在未来几周内将对市场产生怎样导向作用。自8月会议以来，数位央行官员声称支持稳健的货币政策。 FOMC下次会议将于10月24日和25日召开，在此次会议召开之前的期间，政策制定者将有机会阐述他们是否担心通胀确实在下降，以及他们对急剧下降的住房市场将给经济带来怎么样负面影响有何种程度的担忧。

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