转贴:著名投资专家警告，尽快抛出纽元 因为新西兰经济明年将迅速回落， 纽元已经被至少高估20%，所以世界世界著名投资银行Goldman Sachs对其客户提出警告，抛出纽元。 Sell NZ dollars, warns US bank 07.12.05 By Liam Dann As the dollar surged to new highs yesterday, global investment banking giant Goldman Sachs warned its clients to sell the currency because New Zealand's economy is likely to "slow very quickly" next year. The Wall Street bank's top currency trading tip for next year is to sell the New Zealand dollar - which it says is 20 per cent overvalued - and buy the Brazilian real. In a report to its clients - which include billion-dollar investment funds - Goldman Sachs is picking New Zealand interest rates will start falling next year. When that happens foreign investor support for the kiwi "could rapidly disappear". The report will be welcomed by Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard and Finance Minister Michael Cullen, who have tried and failed to sell the same story to investors. Ironically, it comes as investors are once again piling into the New Zealand currency in expectation of Dr Bollard's lifting the official cash rate to 7.25 per cent tomorrow. The aim of the rate rise is to slow the housing market and keep inflation below 3 per cent. But with the New Zealand interest rate already one of the highest in the developed world, every additional rise attracts foreign investors, who push up the value of the currency. That erodes profits for New Zealand exporters, who have to convert their foreign exchange earnings back into overvalued kiwi dollars. As export earnings drop, the chances rise that the economy will face a "hard landing" later next year. New Zealand's current account deficit is already one of the worst in the developed world. It was nearly $12 billion in the year to June. In another worrying sign, world prices for key exports such as dairy and beef have started to fall, new data showed this week. But despite the negative news the kiwi surged to a new high against the Aussie dollar yesterday. It was also trading close to 72USc - a level many exporters believe is unsustainable. "A massive current account deficit, a housing market bubble and tight monetary policy suggest that the economy could slow very quickly," the Goldman Sachs report said. It is picking that the kiwi dollar will be worth just 63USc in 12 months. Local economists also predict a big fall. Latest ANZ bank forecasts pick it to fall to 59USc by June next year. Picking the timing of the fall remains a challenge, the report said. For that reason it advises clients to sell some New Zealand dollars now and buy Brazilian currency. Brazil has high interest rates but a smaller per capita current account surplus. * Yesterday a New Zealand Institute report said the high dollar and falling commodity prices were not solely to blame for New Zealand's export woes. It said serious structural issues, such as the country's lack of integration with the global economy and its reliance on primary produce, were holding back export growth. The dollar * Hit new high yesterday against the Australian dollar of 95.83Ac and nudged 72USc Interest rates * Expected to follow the Official Cash Rate up by 0.25 per cent The sharemarket * Tumbled yesterday. Has dropped 2 per cent this week on fears of hard economic landing

暴跌已经开始。澳元，加元都脱不了干系。

虎王之见极是.:handshake

观点同意，但时机不对

牛斑竹：我今天早上就抛了纽元，不过平早了。我认为纽元在本周四或周五应该有一个比较好的抛出点。不知道牛版认为什么时候最适合做空纽元！！！谢谢！

同意 但時間還待下年吧 因AUD/ NZD盤仍在1.0420-1.0560內震盪 現在升值的力量仍未退......不可逆市而為

加元还没看出已经涨到头，就不要急于空澳元和纽元。

aaa [ 本帖最后由 pinevood 于 2005-12-7 10:32 编辑 ]

今天跌了一百多点了

同意

做空加元 1.1520

能不能翻译一下~~~我看不懂豆芽菜的呀~~~~~~