..."Perhaps the main surprise was the language regarding the high NZD exchange rate, “there is potential for a significant fall.” open to interpretation as a veiled intervention threat. Otherwise, the content of the one-page press release was largely as expected."....

The Reserve Bank today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent. New Zealand’s economy is expected to grow at an annual pace of 3.7 percent over 2014. Global financial conditions remain very accommodative and are reflected in low interest rates, narrow risk spreads, and low financial market volatility. Economic growth among New Zealand’s trading partners has eased slightly in the first half of 2014, but this appears to be due to temporary factors. Construction, particularly in Canterbury, is growing strongly
. At the same time, strong net immigration is adding to housing and household demand
, although house price inflation has moderated further since the June Statement. Over recent months, export prices for dairy and timber have fallen, and these will reduce primary sector incomes over the coming year
. With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified
and unsustainable
and there is potential for a significant fall. Inflation remains moderate, but strong growth in output has been absorbing spare capacity. This is expected to add to non-tradables inflation
. Wage inflation is subdued, reflecting recent low inflation outcomes
, increased labour force participation, and strong net immigration. It is important that inflation expectations remain contained.
Today’s move will help keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point and ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained. Encouragingly, the economy appears to be adjusting to the monetary policy tightening that has taken place since the start of the year. It is prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further towards a more-neutral level.
The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on the assessment of the impact of the tightening in monetary policy to date, and the implications of future economic and financial data for inflationary pressures.

PerthWA 发表于 2014-7-24 09:27
老实说，我觉得NZ加息有点意外，可能是进入加息周期或者为了平抑房价，但是dairy price已经暴跌了，理论上不 ...

"A risk of currency intervention Today’s press release strengthened our conviction that the RBNZ could intervene in foreign exchange markets by selling New Zealand dollars any day now
." "The RBNZ riled against the inconsistency between tumbling export commodity prices and the very high exchange rate by saying “the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall.” "We interpret this choice of language as a direct warning of intervention. The reaction on foreign exchange markets was vigorous." "The NZD/USD exchange rate fell from 87c to 86c, and could fall further. This reaction struck us as entirely sensible – indeed, we are forecasting the NZD/USD to average 83 cents over the remainder of 2014."

awk 发表于 2014-7-24 09:34
原文如次. 1. non-tradables inflation 应该是OCR上调的主因. Wheeler也难啊:-) 2. Westpac的解读, 或更 ...