FF最火的帖子，20年外汇交易经验Fti教授学徒完全对话 - （Initial training log - Technical Analysis Fallacy） Technical Analysis Fallacy forexfactory Originally Posted by fti Session Start (leighfti) Tue Nov 20 190107 2007 [1901] fti ok about levels [1901] fti do you remember ,the selling at 110.35 [1902] fti now thats level 1 [1902] fti he's the scout [1903] fti incidentally , this is the money management part [1903] fti do you remember I sold 3X further [1904] fti That the front line attack squad [1904] fti Then I sold another 3X [1905] fti when It went down and came back up. [1906] fti lets start from the begining again [1907] fti the money mangement part comprise of 7 levels [1908] fti but for beginners I'll teach you 3 for simplicity, ok [1908] fti level 1 = 1 lot [1909] fti level 2 = 3 [1909] fti level 3 = 5 lots but I could'nt do 5 on the system so I did 3 [1909] fti does this make any sense [1910] fti so every attack will be in 3 waves [1911] fti remember I sold 1 lot at 110.35 [1912] fti then it went down to test 110.10 [1913] fti that was the scout [1914] fti he proved correct that the usd was soft [1914] fti so comes the 2 wave of attack [1915] fti but where [1916] fti if mkt went against him then wave 2 the (frontline) must not attack [1917] fti instead I would leave it in the mkt to see [1917] fti how far it would go against it [1920] fti he will be left in the market to feel the mkt pulse [1921] fti lets assume that mkt goes to 110.90 [1922] fti then since I was wrong on the 1 level, I will wait for a max of 7 bars. [1923] fti assuming that 110.90 was the 7th bar, [1923] fti that means 35mins later [1924] fti I would send 1 rescue mission for him and sell 3 lots at 110.90 [1925] fti to take him out without damage. [1925] fti I would have to sell 3 lots at 110.90 [1925] fti otherwise I take home a dead scout [1928] fti you see when I sell the rescue 3 lots [1928] fti what I am effectively doing is [1928] fti averaging my ability to be near the market [1929] fti because by selling 3 at 110.90 [1929] fti now my cost of all 4 lots is 110.737 [1930] fti so if mkt within the next 7 bars drops to 110.72 [1930] fti I'm out with the scout and the rescue team [1932] fti ok what if within the next seven bars mkt continue to go up [1933] fti to lets say 111.50 [1933] fti then a squad of 5 goes in rescue [1934] fti the sequense is in fabonaci expansion - next [1935] fti at the bank I had 500 million USD to rescue 1 million usd [1936] fti my limit is 500 million USD must stop [1936] fti but no market can take me out. [1940] fti first can you grasp the money management concept [1941] fti we know what we're going to do when we are wrong [1942] fti but in this case. [1942] fti what should we do when we are in profit [1945] fti lets recap yesterday [1945] fti scout got in 110.35 [1946] fti then mkt went down to 110.10 [1946] fti then back up [1946] fti to where was that [1947] fti that was level 2 [1947] fti couldn't get it filled [1948] fti saw the indicators for selling coming [1948] fti then mkt tested up again right [1949] fti that was when the long shadow showed, right [1950] fti yes, whats the point of having candle stick charts and not knowing the patterns [1954] fti remember the rescue sequense [1956] fti so whats the sequense [1956] fti ok, I tell U [1958] fti do you know aout fabonacci expansion [1959] fti fabonacci expansion [2000] fti 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 [2001] fti ok even I got it wrong, have to recap [2001] fti look at the fabonacci expansion what do you see [2004] fti the progression for rescue is [2005] fti 1,3,8,21..... [2012] fti fabonacci progression [2014] fti 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 [2015] fti rescue progression [2015] fti 1,3,8,21,55,144 [2016] fti attack progression [2017] fti 1 skip 3 skip 8 skip 21 [2018] fti 1 skip 2 then 3 skip 5 then 8 skip 13 then 21... [2021] fti thats why I teach you only 3 progressionlevels [2023] fti i am talking about concept [2025] fti let talk attack [2025] fti so what's the progression [2026] fti 1,2,5,13,... [2027] fti the numbers we didn't use for attack [2027] fti sorry the numbers we did't use for rescue [2029] fti but for now concept only [2030] fti pls write the fab pro on a piece of paper up to 144 [2032] fti whats the attack [2033] fti 1,2,5,13,34,89 [2036] fti 1,2,skip3,5,skip8,13, skip21, 34...... [2038] fti now for the bank I can do that [2038] fti if I asked you to sell 144 lots to rescue 1 you would ... [2039] fti so thats for the bank [2039] fti for you [2039] fti do you understand elliot wave [2042] fti markets move in 5 wave cycles [2044] fti 3 impules waves and 2 retracement waves making a total of 5 waves [2045] fti so wave 1 is impulse wave 2 is retracement wave 3 is impluse wave 4 is retracement wave 5 is inpluse. [2051] fti anyway,I personally feel for real people we should never go pass level 3 [2052] fti that is unless you want to be a multi millionaire overnight or be bankrupted [2053] fti that's why i showed you 1,3,3 [2053] fti attack [2054] fti you didn't see 1,5,5, rescue [2055] fti actualy rescue is 1,5 then surrender [2056] fti If you analyse my blotters [2057] fti you will see that I am alot more complex than that because I add volitility to the figures [2058] fti I meant that I add market volitility to the positions [2059] fti volitility means the speed of the waves. [2100] fti you see when a wave forms it has direction right [2100] fti it also has speed. [2101] fti so I add that to the positions [2101] fti its vv beyond you now [2102] fti for now just know that you have to take that into consideration. [2119] fti we'll do eurusd today [2127] fti just went short [2127] fti 1.4831 [2139] fti mange to sell 2 @35 [2139] fti sold 1@34 [2151] fti short usd [email protected] [2152] fti i am short 4 right [2155] fti 3375 [2156] fti 1.483375 [2156] fti normally 5 decimal points [2159] fti actually alredy hit target [2159] fti but leg is short [2200] fti so retrace only expect up to 27 [2201] fti i ve got another 3 squads of me to go in [2202] fti trying to find the critcal opening to hit [2203] fti 20 looks like eeeeeh [2205] fti target is 1480090 [2206] fti whnot now missed the opening already [2206] fti target 1.4790 [2207] fti too late the other 3 retires [2208] fti looks like no chance this round [2208] fti taking profit on 3 now [2212] fti don't think just flow [2212] fti bot 1@99 [2214] fti bot 1@99 [2214] fti bot 1@96 [2214] fti left scout [2220] fti short 1 @1.4945 [2223] fti recap sold 1.4835 34 35 31 [2223] fti 31 is scout right [2223] fti bot 1.4799 99 96 [2224] fti so 835-799= [2224] fti 36 [2224] fti 834-799=35 [2225] fti 835-796=39 [2226] fti so is 1.4941 ok [2227] fti scout is short usd at 1.4941 [2228] fti now only scout is left in the battlefield [2229] fti I am actually waiting for retracement to hit level two again [2230] fti 36+35+39=110 [2231] fti scout is @1.4831+.0110=1.4941 [2233] fti selling target opening at 1.4815 [2233] fti and closing [2235] fti how much did each individual men earned [2242] fti I am taking scout out now [2244] fti bot 1.4794 [2257] fti send scout out to sell at 1.4800 [2258] fti now mm sweep up to sell [2300] fti scout deployed short 94 [2301] fti mdm general shall I send army after the scout please [2303] fti next 3 [2307] fti when in bear mode stay thinking [2307] fti Is is going down. [2308] fti when in bear mode stay thinking bear mode [2310] fti when in bear mode always ask is it going down [2310] fti never think oh I see up pattern [2310] fti stay bear [2311] fti if the scout in trouble send rescue later [2312] fti this was one of the laws I gave at the feb posts [2315] fti got scout out bot 1 at 04 [2316] fti new scout deployed bot 1 at 07 [2316] fti quick take a look at 5m chart now [2317] fti the reason I deploy buy scout [2318] fti too high getting scout out now [2319] fti sold 1 at 15 [2321] fti when mkt rallys strong you have to give it a chance to cool off [2322] fti if it persist up at least you are not caught [2323] fti but if it still force itself uo the deploy scout to feel the pluse on whether its real [2324] fti do you notice that the down bars are in 3s and 4s [2324] fti the up bars are singular [2325] fti and now the up bars are singular and down bars are singular [2325] fti sign of stops sweep [2328] fti no really ,lets say for instance we let the scout short at 1.4941 remember [2330] fti why would I want to put a stop loss when they cannot touch him even if they did these no damage. [2330] fti sweep over [2331] fti If I left anything overnight, Ill just leave the scout [2350] fti looks like strong dollar [2351] fti looking for opening to deply scout [2351] fti the sweeps over [2354] fti W top on EUR$ [2354] fti not likely [2355] fti scout deployed 03 [2356] fti 1.4803 [2356] fti meant double top sorry [2356] fti supposed to be M tops [2357] fti can you see it in the daily charts [0001] fti scout in trouble, reversal in complete [0001] fti withdraw scout now [0003] fti bot 1 at 06 [0004] fti actually mkt still bear [0006] fti now lets try redeploy scout near 00 [0011] fti scout deployed at 03 [0012] fti poor scout [0013] fti looks like heavy top [0014] fti testing top again [0014] fti can you see it [0015] fti because the scout was against the trend [0015] fti remember it was a test [0016] fti for up side [0016] fti but trend we determined was down [0016] fti earlier that is [0017] fti but we are very near objective so the question is how steep the down side over-run will be. [0021] fti I think I'll take the scout out again [0022] fti london's going to lunch soon [0023] fti dealers lunch at 11 [0026] fti bot 1 at 797 [0026] fti all squared for lunch ,,old chaps [0027] fti I am all squared now [0032] fti london boys comes back from lunch markets normally sit wait for NY boys [0033] fti just trying to sweep stops below major support [0034] fti london boys comes back from lunch markets normally sit wait for NY boys lead [0035] fti this one example plays place stops below the support, too close and get sweeped [0035] fti too far and defeats the purpose. [0036] fti like I said, experience counts as well, can feel the mkt pulse better [0037] fti I was sweeping [0037] fti market makermakers market [0037] fti interbank [0038] fti teir 1 [0039] fti it was in my post [0039] fti at feb's [0039] fti just now probably big stop oder by customer sopt sell EUR [0040] fti probably placed teir ons and have been sitting duck since morning. [0041] fti cust probably though break this support dlr would be dead. [0042] fti so london boys waited for market to get thin near lunch [0042] fti to put the duck out of its misery. [0043] fti you see london open to trade down [0044] fti found good support 1.47 9000 [0044] fti variance 1.4785 strong [0045] fti sweeped up to 1.481020 [0046] fti I think london boys at lunch already Session Close (fti) Wed Nov 21 010345 2007

上个星期的赚钱绝招放到这个星期就亏大钱了，2007年的经验还有用么。。。。;P ;P ;P

哈哈，无招胜有招，因为不存在稳定的招！

鸟语，看起来费劲:028:

呵呵，学易经吧，那卦象的繁复变化和大小周期的变化有相似之处。

召唤野生字幕君