George Soros interviewMarch 7 2007 ChrystiaFreeland, FT US Managing Editor and FT reporter James Politi,interviewed George Soros in New York on March 6. This is an editedtranscript of the interview. FT: Thank you for joining us, Mr Soros. GS: Pleasure. FT: We’re speaking at a moment of a lot of turbulence in the markets. What’s your explanation for what’s happening? GS:I think there are several factors but, very important, is the carrytrade, the fact that the yen is basically interest free and a lot ofmoney is coming from borrowing and a lot of Japanese money goingabroad. And the yen was weakening so a lot of people got into thattrade and there’s a little bit of a shake-up going on. FT: With the appreciation of the yen? GS:That’s right. I mean the appreciation of the yen shows that there is ashake-out. Now, behind it you have got the slowdown in the US economy,the housing situation where you haven’t yet seen the total effect ofthe slowdown. It’s still halfway through. So will that actually resultin a significant slowdown in consumer spending? That is yet to be seenbecause you have had mortgage equity withdrawals of nearly $900bn ayear. Now it has fallen to $300bn and it basically will disappear. Andthat will affect consumer spending. Now, as the US slows down,the emerging markets are still going very strong, China and India, soyou will actually go back to a more balanced economy with more growthabroad and correcting the deficit. But that will see less liquidity inthe market because it’s really the trading balance creating the sametrillion dollars of Chinese reserves and similar amounts in othercountries. That has actually fed this global liquidity splurge. FT: What impact will that drawing up of liquidity have? GS: It will have an effect on the market and I don’t think that we are in any way nearer a crash. But it’s a warning crack. FT:What sort of an impact do you think the emerging markets have had onthe events of the past week? Some people have attributed the beginningsof people’s worries to a sharp drop in Shanghai. GS: Well,it did start in China and the Chinese market was rising at anunsustainable rate and the authorities did want to slow it down. But,on the other hand, they don’t want it to fall out of bed either so Ithink that you’ve had that sort of initial impulse and I think theChinese market will be kept on an even keel, certainly until after theOlympics. FT: Another area where somepeople have felt that we might be reaching some sort of a bubble is inprivate equity where we’ve seen one record after another broken. Whatdo you think is happening there? GS: Both hedge funds andprivate equity funds play a much more important role in the market andthey introduce leverage. And that leverage is based then on thecheapest source of financing, which is currently in Japan, so that isthe liquidity bubble we are talking about. FT: So, if we see further appreciation of the yen, what kind of impact will that have? GS: Obviously it would lead to an unwinding but I don’t think it’s going to get out of hand right now. FT:Another area where you’ve been very active is American politics and youcame out as an early supporter of Barack Obama. Why did you decide toback him? GS: I think that he brings a fresh voice intothe political arena. He’s a sort of transformational figure that couldreally help America leave behind and correct the errors that the BushAdministration has made. So I think he would be a terrific candidatebut it doesn’t mean that Hillary wouldn’t make a very good president.So my support of Barack Obama is in no way in opposition to Hillary. Iwould be very happy with her as president as well. FT: But it does imply that you think that he would be better than she would be. GS:I think he would bring a fresher voice and I think that his entry isalready improving the presidential debate, and I think that, whateverthe outcome, it will strengthen the Democratic field. FT:Some people, including former strong supporters of the Clintons, havetalked about Clinton fatigue and that it is time for fresh voices inthe Democratic party. Do you agree with that? GS: I thinkthat we need fresh voices, yes. I think we need to leave behind theinvolvement with the Iraq war and I think we need to actually questionthe war on terror because that’s where we really went off the rails.And I think Barack Obama is in the better position to do this thananybody who has actually been on the scene at the time. So we do need afresh voice; that’s why I’m supporting him. FT: What about the war in Iraq? What’s the right policy for America now and also for the Democratic Party? GS:Well, I’m afraid that the situation in Iraq is out of our control. Wehave messed it up and we are not in really a position to correct it. Sowe have to extricate ourselves with the least possible damage and thenwe have to pay a lot more attention to the Palestine problem, which isstill solveable. There is the makings of a peace settlement, even atthis late stage, or exactly because we are at this late stage becauseSaudi Arabia feels also very much threatened by the rise of Iran isvery much concerned about having a peace settlement guaranteed by theArab neighbours. So that’s an offer on the table that needs to bepicked up and I’m afraid there is some resistance here to doing so. FT:Resistance here in the United States? GS:Yes, because there is this frame of the war on terror and Hamas as aterrorist organisation that you can’t accept as part of the Palestiniangovernment and you can’t have a peace in Palestine without Hamasbecause Hamas, if it’s not part of that settlement, is bound to destroyit. So you must deal with Hamas and I think we are in the process ofcommitting a blunder, similar to the blunder of going into Iraq, by notaccepting Hamas as a negotiating partner. FT:I’d also like to ask you about Russia, a place that you’ve had a longinvolvement with. How worried should we be by the increasingly forcefulattitude that we’re seeing from Russia towards its immediateneighbours, but also towards Europe and the world more generally? GS:I think we have to recognise that Russia is an emerging importantpetrol superpower that is using its natural resources as a way ofre-establishing its power and influence in the world, maintaining therulers of the Kremlin in power and also using the control over thepipelines to bribe the neighbouring countries to submit their gasreserves to the control of Gazprom. So this is the reality and theKremlin has become much more aggressive in this pursuit of policiesthan it had been when it was the centre of the Soviet Union because theSoviet Union consisted of bureaucrats who were risk averse. The peoplewho are in power now, they are adventurers - that’s how they got there.And therefore they are prepared to follow adventurous policies. SoEurope, in particular, needs to get its act together and develop aunified front in negotiating with Russia because otherwise Russia hasthe monopoly power through its control of a sufficient portion of thegas supplies and is using that as a monopoly power. FT: Thank you very much. GS: Pleasure. And now the prediction: GS:I would say that we will not take military action against Iran, thatreason will prevail and we will refrain from doing something that willbe very, very counterproductive.

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很好，就是看不懂，太有才了

基本上都是大家都知道的话事情。比如，股市的暴跌是由于日元利息低，借日元平仓盘引发。 对于今后日元套息平仓盘是否继续，他认为目前不会失控。 他认为中国股市和经济发展至少在奥运会之前不会有大问题。美国的房地产和其他经济问题会使美国经济走软。 他主要谈的是美国下届总统，他支持民主党的黑人候选人当总统。他数落了布什一番，对布什的伊拉克战争给与抨击。他也不是反对克林顿的老婆当总统，是说应该有新面孔了，听到新的声音比较好。 对于这种人公开的讲话，其用意都要考虑考虑，所以，他们也不会轻易表白市场的动向的预测，他们自己的公司怎么做单，不会透露出来的。